Trex (TREX)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$45.63+4.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TREX
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $46 the market pays 26× p/e — above the 19× p/e peer median but in line with its own 26× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $41 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $36–$61. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $52 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $53.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $39.05 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $39.11 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $19.77 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$36.00 – $61.00 (median $53.00) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-08-11
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $0.66/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $48.75 |
| 11.6 |
| 4.20 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $37.39 | 18.7 | 2.00 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $32.16 | 16.6 | 1.94 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $21.55 | 1.8 | 11.80 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $45.58 | 25.9 | 1.76 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $12.76 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $45.62 | 25.9 | 1.76 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $35.20 | 19.1 | 1.85 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $37.32 | 16.6 | 2.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $23.58 | 1.8 | 12.91 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $58.19 | 25.9 | 2.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $58.24 | 25.9 | 2.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $37.30 | 16.6 | 2.25 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $23.57 | 1.8 | 12.90 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $58.15 | 25.9 | 2.25 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $58.21 | 25.9 | 2.25 | Analyst | high |