Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Trex (TREX)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$56.01-1.99%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.02 → 2.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TREX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating cash flow improves from negative in Q1 2026 | A supporting condition in Trex's published investment case. The stated target is Operating cash flow turns positive by FY26 end. | Improving | Operating cash flow remains negative through FY26 | Cash from operations: $214.165M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating cash flow turns positive by FY26 end. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026214,165,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TREX is a growth-oriented building-products company whose multi-year view depends on expanding revenue and capacity, rather than a turnaround. The thesis is currently intact, though its signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed as earnings misses and sector headwinds temper strong recent performance.
TREX is valued at a substantial premium to peers, and the pricing signal is stretched. The evidence points to some expectations for durable strength, while the measured expectations gap is modest; confidence in that assessment is medium.
Near term, revenue growth and raised full-year guidance support the business, while Arkansas capacity expansion and distribution upgrades are intended to support management’s 2030 growth goal. However, earnings quality is fragile: TREX has missed across recent quarters, and a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful setback. The distribution transition is tracking to plan, but its growth benefit remains uncertain.
Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether TREX avoids a guidance cut and turns revenue growth into more reliable earnings delivery. Over the multi-year view, execution on capacity expansion and distribution changes matters, alongside demand conditions. Results and guidance from sector bellwethers JCI, MAS, and CSL could signal whether the sector backdrop improves or becomes a further headwind.
For the next 1 to 3 years, TREX has a credible growth plan and strong recent financial performance, but repeated earnings misses, elevated risk, and stretched valuation make execution the central question. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Gross margin stays near 37.5% in 2026 | It guides $1.2B revenue and 37.5% gross margin for 2026. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 35% in FY26 | Gross margin: 36.01% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 37.5%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202636.014342 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
New CEO drives revenue growth and innovation | The new CEO focuses on growth and innovation. | Intact | CEO growth initiatives fail to materialize by end 2026 | 2026 revenue outlook $1.3B-$1.31B vs $2B 2030 target Trex raised 2026 sales outlook to $1.296B-$1.306B and beat Q3 earnings estimates, reinforcing the path to $2B revenue by 2030. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Trex revenue reaches about $1.2 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Trex's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.2B. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.1B in FY26 | Revenue: $359.504M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.2B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026359,504,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.93 → $2.02 · observed estimates
$1.31B → $1.32B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.93 | $1,307,163,770 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.93 | $1,307,910,990 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.92 | $1,305,169,731 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.93 | $1,307,910,990 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.93 | $1,307,910,990 | 19 / 18 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.93 | $1,305,877,626 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.94 | $1,308,247,470 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.94 | $1,308,247,470 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.94 | $1,308,230,363 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.94 | $1,308,247,470 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.94 | $1,308,247,470 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.94 | $1,308,230,363 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.94 | $1,308,247,470 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.94 | $1,308,230,363 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.01 | $1,320,116,567 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.01 | $1,320,491,140 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.01 | $1,320,491,140 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.01 | $1,320,116,567 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.01 | $1,320,116,567 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.01 | $1,320,116,567 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.01 | $1,320,116,567 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.01 | $1,320,116,567 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.01 | $1,320,116,567 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.01 | $1,320,116,567 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.01 | $1,320,116,567 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.02 | $1,322,295,514 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.02 | $1,322,296,252 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.02 | $1,322,006,439 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.02 | $1,323,306,439 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.02 | $1,323,306,439 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.02 | $1,323,306,439 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.02 | $1,323,306,439 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.02 | $1,322,686,439 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.02 | $1,323,971,439 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.02 | $1,323,945,889 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.02 | $1,323,522,045 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.02 | $1,323,641,344 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.02 | $1,323,641,344 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.02 | $1,323,641,344 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.02 | $1,323,641,344 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.02 | $1,323,641,344 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.02 | $1,322,091,344 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.02 | $1,322,091,344 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.02 | $1,322,091,344 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.02 | $1,322,091,344 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.02 | $1,322,091,344 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.02 | $1,322,091,344 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.02 | $1,322,091,344 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.02 | $1,322,091,344 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.02 | $1,322,091,344 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.02 | $1,321,329,894 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.02 | $1,321,329,894 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.02 | $1,321,329,894 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.02 | $1,321,329,894 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.02 | $1,321,329,894 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.02 | $1,321,329,894 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.02 | $1,321,329,894 | 11 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 5 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.