Trex (TREX)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$56.01-1.99%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TREX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 35.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 33.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TREX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-09-02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On July 13, 2026, Trex Company, Inc. (Company) issued a press release announcing upgrades to its distribution network, as previously furnished. Also, on July 13, 2026, the Company held a conference call to discuss upgrades to its distribution network and preliminary financial results for the three months ended June 30, 2026. A transcript of the conference call is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2.
Why it matters: Q2 margin fell as costs rose and production ran unevenly. A rebound would show better plant use and lower start-up pressure.
Supportive ifQ3 gross margin rises above Q2's 37.9%, with Trex citing higher plant use or fewer production issues.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin stays at or below 37.9%, with weak plant use or production issues still noted.
Why it matters: Trex moved the production ramp to Q3 to meet stronger demand. Reaching 50% capacity would show the new site is scaling.
Supportive ifTrex reports that the Arkansas site runs at 50% or more of capacity by year-end 2026.
Worry ifTrex reports the site is below 50% capacity at year-end, or delays the ramp.
Why it matters: Trex approved up to $150M in repurchases for the second half. The amount completed will show how cash returns match the stated plan.
Supportive ifTrex reports completing repurchases near the authorized $150M by the end of 2026.
Worry ifTrex reports repurchases well below $150M or pauses the plan.
Why it matters: Trex raised its sales range after a strong first half. Falling below the new floor would show demand or delivery fell short.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 net sales come in below $1.215B.
Less concerning ifFull-year net sales reach at least $1.215B, within or above guidance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$131 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $325 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,034 loss on $10,000 · 20.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Trex guided to Q3 sales of $305M to $320M. A miss would weaken the recent growth story.
Worry ifQ3 net sales come in below $305M.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales reach at least $305M, within or above the guided range.