Transcat, Inc. (TRNS)
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$100.38-7.17%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TRNS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 33.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TRNS — earnings in line
Dated 2026-05-26
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 26, 2026, Transcat, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its fiscal fourth quarter and year ended March 28, 2026. The press release is attached to this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. In addition, on May 26, 2026, the Company posted slides to the Investor Relations section of its website that will accompany the Company’s earnings conference call and webcast at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time today. The slides a…
Why it matters: Debt rose to $110.4 million in Q1. Cash generation and debt levels will show whether growth plans add strain.
Worry ifAt the next report, debt exceeds $110.4 million and operating free cash flow is below $4.8 million.
Less concerning ifDebt is at or below $110.4 million and operating free cash flow is at or above $4.8 million.
Why it matters: Distribution sales rose 11.4% in Q1, but its margin fell 380 basis points. A recovery would show stronger sales mix.
Supportive ifQ2 Distribution gross margin tops 31.4%. Distribution revenue also grows from a year ago.
Worry ifQ2 Distribution gross margin stays at or below 31.4%, or Distribution revenue falls year over year.
Why it matters: Management set a high-single-digit goal for fiscal 2027. Q2 service growth will test whether recent momentum is holding.
Supportive ifQ2 service organic revenue grows 7% or more from a year ago. Management keeps its high-single-digit fiscal 2027 goal.
Worry ifQ2 service organic revenue growth falls below 5%, or management cuts its fiscal 2027 goal.
Why it matters: Service margin rose to 33.9% in Q1. More gains would support management's plan to improve how the business runs.
Supportive ifQ2 service gross margin tops 33.0%, its level a year ago. Management keeps its fiscal 2027 goal to expand margins.
Worry ifQ2 service gross margin is at or below 33.0%, or management drops its fiscal 2027 margin expansion goal.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$187 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $464 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,855 loss on $10,000 · 18.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.