Reading TRU? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TRU free→Reading TRU? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TRU free→NYSEIndustrialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 29% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on whether TRU cuts guidance after recently raising it, which could damage credibility, and on the performance of sector bellwethers like BA, CAT, and UNP. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $66.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $66 TRU trades at 15× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $94 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $80–$111. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 30% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.45x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.15 → $1.15 (+0.2% / 30d). 2 raised, 5 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 77% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 2 guided quarters · 126.9% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$136.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$381.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,350.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show economic problems. This could hurt TransUnion's business.
Confirms:Weekly claims go over 300,000. This shows the job market is getting worse.
Disproves:Weekly claims drop below 250,000, suggesting a stronger job market.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TRU yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, TransUnion (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (t…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$80.00 – $111.00 (median $100.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-04-29
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Research & Consulting Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TRU TransUnion | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
VRSK Verisk Analytics | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | elevated |
EFX Equifax | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
BAH Booz Allen Hamilton | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCN FTI Consulting | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on revenue growth by acquiring companies, such as Trans Union de Mexico.
Drive EPS growth by enhancing operational efficiencies and cost management.
Increase capital returns to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth is improving or declining. This is key for investors.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 6% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Acquisitions are a key priority for growth. Success here can improve revenue outlook.
Confirms:They announced a completed acquisition. It adds over $100M in annual revenue.
Disproves:There are no acquisition announcements. There are also no failed attempts to acquire.
Why it matters: Improvements in operations can lead to better earnings per share. This is crucial for growth.
Confirms:EPS growth reported above 10% in the next earnings release.
Disproves:EPS growth reported below 5% in the next earnings release.
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth picks up, it could help TransUnion's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth shows a rebound back toward 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth continues to decline below 5% year over year.