Tractor Supply (TSCO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$34.99+1.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TSCO
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $35 TSCO trades at 17× p/e — 1.5× the 11× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $21 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $28–$50. Note: our $21 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($28–$50). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $36.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $10.37 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $15.17 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $31.63 | 8.9 | 4.05 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$28.00 – $50.00 (median $36.50) · 20 analysts · as of 2026-07-28
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $8.31 |
| 14.2 |
| 0.59 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $22.98 | 11.3 | 2.04 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $12.05 | 0.4 | 30.02 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $11.83 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $23.29 | 11.3 | 2.07 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $3.89 | 14.2 | 0.27 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $23.14 | 11.3 | 2.05 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $23.24 | 11.3 | 2.06 | Analyst | medium |