Tractor Supply (TSCO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$34.99+1.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TSCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 64.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 60.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers
TSCO — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-08-25
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of Registrant. The information set forth under
Why it matters: The number of store closures shows how well the company runs its Petsense business.
Worry ifAnnouncement of more than 75 Petsense store closures.
Less concerning ifNo new store closures have been announced beyond the current 75.
Why it matters: Plans for capital spending show how Tractor Supply is investing for growth.
Supportive ifManagement shares a clear plan for capital spending that matches growth goals.
Worry ifNo clear plan for capital spending is given. This shows uncertainty.
Why it matters: The earnings report will update sales, margins, and effects of recent purchases.
Watch forEarnings report shows net sales growth of 4% or more, indicating strong performance.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows net sales growth under 1%. This raises concerns about market conditions.
Why it matters: Slower digital sales could lower total revenue. This may weaken the market position.
Worry ifDigital sales growth was below double digits.
Less concerning ifDigital sales growth was at or above double digits.
Why it matters: A drop in operating margin may mean rising costs and lower profits.
Worry ifOperating margin rate was below 9.3%.
Less concerning ifOperating margin rate was above 9.6%.
Why it matters: If sales stabilize, it shows recovery from the May drop. This supports growth hopes.
Supportive ifQ3 store sales are either better or the same as last year.
Worry ifQ3 comparable store sales decline further than -1%.
Why it matters: This acquisition could help Tractor Supply's pet care services. It may also connect better with customers.
Supportive ifLook for good customer feedback. More engagement in the Neighbor's Club after the acquisition is a good sign.
Worry ifBad customer feedback or no rise in engagement in the Neighbor's Club loyalty program.
Why it matters: A stable or better operating margin means better cost control. It also shows more productivity.
Supportive ifOperating margin rate improves to 8.0% or higher in Q3.
Worry ifIf the operating margin falls below 8.0%, it is a bad sign.
Why it matters: Good integration helps customers engage more. It can also boost revenue from pet services.
Supportive ifThere are good updates about customer engagement. Revenue is rising from VIP Petcare services.
Worry ifThere are reports of problems or delays in integrating VIP Petcare services.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend can show how much management trusts cash flow and profits.
Watch forAnnouncement of an increase in the quarterly dividend per share.
Also watch forA dividend cut or pause is announced.
Why it matters: Changes in guidance show how confident management is. This affects future results.
Watch forManagement raises the 2026 guidance for net sales growth to over 3.5%.
Also watch forManagement lowers the 2026 guidance for net sales growth to under 2.5%.
Why it matters: Updates will show how well the company deals with Petsense's problems.
Worry ifManagement will give a good update on Petsense's changes at the next earnings call.
Less concerning ifMore bad news or delays about Petsense's changes.
Why it matters: Updates will show how well the company uses capital to grow.
Supportive ifManagement will share new plans or investments after the $500 million share buyback.
Worry ifNo new plans or investments are shared after the share buyback.
Why it matters: This report will give details on financial performance and new guidance.
Watch forEarnings report shows net income within the updated guidance range of $930 million to $990 million.
Also watch forEarnings report shows net income below $930 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$143 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $330 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,150 loss on $10,000 · 51.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.