Tractor Supply (TSCO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$36.58+4.22%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TSCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 37.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TSCO — dividend update
Dated 2026-11-05
Other Events. On November 5, 2026, the Company issued the press release furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 announcing the Company's declaration of a cash dividend of $0.24 per share of outstanding common stock payable December 8, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on November 23, 2026.
Why it matters: Higher transport and fuel costs, plus price cuts, pulled down Q3 gross margin. A recovery would support the plan to restore margins.
Supportive ifQ4 gross margin rises above 36.4%, the Q3 rate.
Worry ifQ4 gross margin stays at or below 36.4%, with transport, fuel, or price costs still weighing on results.
Why it matters: TSCO aims to restore operating margins, but Q3 margin fell to 7.87%. A Q4 result below guidance would show further strain.
Worry ifFull-year operating margin is below 8.0%, below the stated 8.0% to 8.3% range.
Less concerning ifFull-year operating margin lands within or above the 8.0% to 8.3% range.
Why it matters: TSCO withdrew its old long-term plan after cutting its 2026 outlook. The new plan will show how management frames growth and margins.
Watch forTSCO gives a new long-term plan with clear sales and margin goals, and keeps or raises those goals in later updates.
Also watch forTSCO delays the new plan, gives no clear sales or margin goals, or later cuts those goals.
Why it matters: TSCO kept its full-year comparable sales range at -1% to flat. Q4 results will show whether the rebound can meet that range.
Worry ifQ4 comparable sales are below -1%. Full-year comparable sales are then below the guidance range.
Less concerning ifFull-year comparable sales end at -1% or better. This is within the stated range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $346 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,767 loss on $10,000 · 47.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.