Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Taysha Gene Therapies, Inc. (TSHA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.36+6.60%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TSHA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain sufficient capital via debt issuance | Debt issuance provides capital for progress. | Intact | capital runs low or no further funding available in 2026 | 32.5M shares issued vs sufficient capital target TSHA issued 32.5M shares in June 2026 via underwriting agreement with Jefferies and Goldman Sachs. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative clinical-development investment, not an established earnings compounder. Management is advancing TSHA-102 and commercial preparation, while the thesis remains on watch because recent financial performance is weak and below its industry cohort.
The valuation is described as expensive versus peers, with a modest expectations gap and low model confidence. The snapshot says the premium is tied to potential future opportunity, while the full combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence is not reflected in its fragility assessment.
Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a high industry miss rate make the next report a meaningful risk. Over the multi-year view, management has completed dosing in the 17-patient REVEAL pivotal trial, continues ASPIRE dosing, and expects topline data and FDA feedback on the BLA pathway in the first half of 2027; cash is expected to fund operations into the second half of 2028. Commercial preparation and manufacturing partnership work have advanced, but no specific revenue or volume milestones are reported.
The key swing factors are TSHA-102 trial results, FDA feedback on the BLA submission pathway, and completion of the planned manufacturing work. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; stronger results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum, while weakening employment data could weigh on healthcare names.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on clinical and regulatory milestones converting into a credible path toward a potential launch, while execution and funding remain under watch. The evidence is mixed, and the valuation premium rests on future optionality rather than established financial strength. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Taysha advances TSHA-102 clinical development with a shortened timeline. |
| Improving |
| TSHA-102 development delays or setbacks occur next year |
Qualitative: PPQ completion targeted Q4 2026; FDA feedback H1 2027 TSHA-102 development is on track with PPQ completion targeted for Q4 2026 and FDA feedback expected in H1 2027. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce net losses from 2026-Q1 baseline | The company aims to improve financial performance despite a net loss of $42.41M in 2026-Q1. | Intact | net loss worsens or remains flat relative to -$42.41M in 2026-Q1 | Net income: $-46.639M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net loss improves from -$42.41M in 2026-Q1 over next 4 quarters. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 2026-46,639,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase revenue from $1.85M in 2026 to higher levels | A primary condition in Taysha Gene Therapies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue grows above $1.85M in FY26 and approaches $29.7M in FY27. | Broken | revenue falls below $1.85M in FY26 or fails to grow toward $29.7M in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.46 → $-0.52 · observed estimates
$0.04B → $0.03B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.46 | $37,360,943 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.46 | $37,360,943 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.46 | $37,360,943 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.46 | $37,360,943 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.43 | $29,722,000 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.46 | $37,360,943 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.46 | $37,360,943 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.43 | $29,722,000 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.46 | $37,360,943 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.43 | $29,722,000 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.46 | $37,360,943 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.46 | $37,360,943 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.43 | $29,722,000 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.43 | $29,722,000 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.46 | $37,360,943 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.46 | $37,360,943 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.46 | $37,360,943 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.43 | $29,722,000 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.46 | $37,360,943 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.46 | $37,360,943 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.46 | $37,360,943 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.46 | $37,360,943 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.46 | $37,360,943 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.46 | $37,360,943 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.46 | $37,360,943 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.52 | $28,473,384 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.