Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$428.91+2.85%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TSM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into TSM's performance and sector trends.
Watch forEarnings report shows better than expected revenue and profit margins.
Also watch forEarnings report shows lower than expected revenue and profit margins.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below its median, it signals a slowdown in the sector. This could impact TSM's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth for TSM falls below the median growth rate for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: Rising unemployment claims can show economic stress. This affects TSM's outlook.
Worry ifWeekly unemployment claims rise a lot compared to previous weeks.
Less concerning ifWeekly unemployment claims go down or stay the same.
Why it matters: The GDP estimate can signal economic health. This affects TSM's market outlook.
Watch forGDP advance estimate shows growth above 2% for Q2 2026.
Also watch forGDP advance estimate shows growth below 1% for Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $423 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,155 loss on $10,000 · 21.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: TSM's performance compared to peers like NVDA and AAPL can indicate its competitive position. A decline could signal market share loss.
Worry ifTSM's performance gets worse compared to its peers in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifTSM's performance gets better compared to its peers in the next quarter.
Why it matters: GDP and corporate profits can affect how investors feel. This impacts TSM's market outlook.
Watch forGDP growth is revised up. This shows a stronger economy.
Also watch forGDP growth is revised down. This shows economic weakness.
Why it matters: Demand from clients like Apple and NVIDIA affects TSM's sales and growth outlook.
Watch forMajor clients say they need more semiconductors next quarter.
Also watch forMajor clients say they need fewer semiconductors next quarter.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it shows TSM is adapting well in a maturing sector.
Supportive ifTSM reports revenue growth of 10% or more in the next earnings report.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 4% in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into TSM's financial health and growth prospects. Investors will be looking for revenue and profit trends.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue growth that is better than what analysts expected.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows revenue growth that is worse than what analysts expected.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below its median, it signals a slowdown in the sector.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below the median for the sector in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median for the sector in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: The Producer Price Index affects input costs and can impact margins for TSM.
Watch forPPI data shows a big rise. This means costs are going up.
Also watch forPPI data shows no change or a drop. This means costs are under control.
Why it matters: The Consumer Price Index impacts consumer demand and can affect TSM's sales.
Watch forCPI data shows a big rise. This means consumer demand is getting stronger.
Also watch forCPI data shows a drop. This means consumer demand is getting weaker.