Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$353.10-10.78%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TSM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -36.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 49 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below its median, it signals a slowdown in the sector. This could impact TSM's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth for TSM falls below the median growth rate for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: GDP data impacts how much semiconductors are needed. It also affects the economy.
Watch forGDP growth is higher than expected.
Also watch forGDP growth is lower than expected.
Why it matters: TSM's performance compared to peers like NVDA and AAPL can indicate its competitive position. A decline could signal market share loss.
Worry ifTSM's performance gets worse compared to its peers in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifTSM's performance gets better compared to its peers in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings guidance shows how the company handles the current market.
Watch forManagement raises earnings guidance for the next quarter.
Also watch forManagement lowers earnings guidance for the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $434 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,732 loss on $10,000 · 27.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Demand from clients like Apple and NVIDIA affects TSM's sales and growth outlook.
Watch forMajor clients say they need more semiconductors next quarter.
Also watch forMajor clients say they need fewer semiconductors next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop below the median signals a slowdown in the growth phase of the sector. This could affect TSM's performance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below the median growth rate for the sector.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains at or above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it shows TSM is adapting well in a maturing sector.
Supportive ifTSM reports revenue growth of 10% or more in the next earnings report.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 4% in the next earnings report.