Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$395.75-2.24%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
702.39 → 734.78 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TSM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
TSMC's leadership in AI chip manufacturing and advanced packaging | The company expands its advanced packaging capabilities through partnerships and grows its Arizona plant. | Intact | Loss of AI chip leadership or failure to advance packaging technology | Qualitative leadership maintained; no loss of AI chip or packaging position reported Tesla Terafab talks and Anthropic supply reliance reinforce TSMC's essential role in AI chip manufacturing and advanced packaging. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-sensitive technology investment, but the evidence does not establish a durable-compounder or turnaround case. The current thesis state is insufficient because recent financial performance history is not enough to assess it.
The valuation label recently changed to fair, and the valuation model has high confidence. No fragility gates fired, so the evidence points to low priced-in fragility, but it does not say what specific growth expectations the market assumes.
Near term, the evidence flags a quiet watch tier and a 12% miss probability, while noting recent misses among industry peers and a deep miss in TSM’s own history. Over the multi-year view, there is not enough recent financial-performance evidence to establish a fundamental trend.
A favorable setup could follow if the Fed begins cutting rates or major tech peers stabilize with steady guidance. A material slowdown in GDP growth from 2.1%, especially below 2%, would weigh on the growth-sensitive sector and the thesis.
For the next 1 to 3 years, TSM’s thesis is unresolved: valuation is labeled fair, but the available evidence is too thin to confirm the business trajectory. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
TSMC earnings per share growth | A primary condition in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=$15.91 EPS in FY26 and >=$20.29 EPS in FY27. | Intact | EPS falls below $15.91 in FY26 or $20.29 in FY27 | Diluted EPS: TWD 147.15 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$15.91 EPS in FY26 and >=$20.29 EPS in FY27. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 15, 2026147.15 TWD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stable geopolitical environment supporting Taiwan operations | A supporting condition in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is No major geopolitical disruptions affecting Taiwan or TSMC operations. | Under Pressure | Significant geopolitical events disrupting Taiwan or TSMC operations | Qualitative: 1 material risk flag (Anthropic IPO) vs Target: No major disruptions Anthropic IPO filing warns of TSMC disruptions; TSMC seeks equipment alternatives to mitigate China rare earths grip. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
TSMC total revenue growth | A primary condition in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=$5.19 trillion in FY26 and >=$6.63 trillion in FY27. | Intact | revenue falls below $5.19 trillion in FY26 or $6.63 trillion in FY27 | Revenue: TWD 1,493.426B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$5.19 trillion in FY26 and >=$6.63 trillion in FY27. Target and observation currencies differ. Oct 15, 20261,493,425,963,000 TWD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$21.29 → $734.78 · observed estimates
$7091.99B → $7602.32B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $21.29 | $7,091,985,680,230 | 12 / 39 |
| 2026-07-25 | $21.29 | $7,140,297,489,770 | 12 / 39 |
| 2026-07-26 | $21.29 | $7,140,297,489,770 | 12 / 39 |
| 2026-07-27 | $691.37 | $7,203,888,238,184 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-07-28 | $21.29 | $7,140,297,489,770 | 12 / 39 |
| 2026-07-29 | $691.37 | $7,203,888,238,184 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-07-30 | $693.68 | $7,222,956,113,638 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-07-31 | $21.61 | $7,170,335,027,520 | 13 / 40 |
| 2026-08-01 | $693.68 | $7,222,956,113,638 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-02 | $21.61 | $7,170,335,027,520 | 13 / 40 |
| 2026-08-03 | $694.46 | $7,228,396,451,954 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-04 | $694.46 | $7,228,396,451,954 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-05 | $21.61 | $7,170,335,027,520 | 13 / 40 |
| 2026-08-06 | $21.61 | $7,170,335,027,520 | 13 / 40 |
| 2026-08-08 | $694.73 | $7,226,849,340,667 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-09 | $694.73 | $7,226,849,340,667 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-10 | $694.73 | $7,226,849,340,667 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-12 | $21.76 | $7,207,012,788,020 | 12 / 40 |
| 2026-08-13 | $694.73 | $7,226,849,340,667 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-14 | $694.73 | $7,226,849,340,667 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-15 | $694.73 | $7,226,849,340,667 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-16 | $694.73 | $7,226,849,340,667 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-17 | $694.73 | $7,226,849,340,667 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-18 | $694.73 | $7,226,849,340,667 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-19 | $694.73 | $7,226,849,340,667 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-20 | $697.81 | $7,266,728,890,866 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-21 | $699.60 | $7,267,796,682,586 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-22 | $699.61 | $7,267,796,682,586 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-23 | $699.61 | $7,267,796,682,586 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-24 | $699.61 | $7,267,796,682,586 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-25 | $699.61 | $7,267,796,682,586 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-26 | $699.66 | $7,267,796,682,586 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-27 | $699.66 | $7,267,796,682,586 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-28 | $699.66 | $7,267,796,682,586 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-29 | $698.26 | $7,262,931,545,247 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-30 | $698.26 | $7,262,931,545,247 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-08-31 | $698.26 | $7,262,931,545,247 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-09-01 | $700.12 | $7,271,878,496,480 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-09-02 | $700.35 | $7,271,878,496,480 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-09-03 | $701.46 | $7,277,507,433,303 | 10 / 22 |
| 2026-09-04 | $701.38 | $7,277,507,433,303 | 10 / 23 |
| 2026-09-05 | $701.37 | $7,277,507,433,303 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-06 | $701.37 | $7,277,507,433,303 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-07 | $701.37 | $7,277,507,433,303 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-08 | $701.46 | $7,277,507,433,303 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-09 | $702.76 | $7,284,061,959,585 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-10 | $702.87 | $7,284,080,594,404 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-11 | $702.87 | $7,284,080,594,404 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-12 | $703.64 | $7,288,869,336,544 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-13 | $703.64 | $7,288,869,336,544 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-14 | $703.64 | $7,288,869,336,544 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-15 | $703.99 | $7,293,392,544,665 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-16 | $704.31 | $7,292,698,597,233 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-17 | $704.24 | $7,292,698,597,233 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-18 | $704.24 | $7,292,698,597,233 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-19 | $704.45 | $7,294,997,867,620 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-20 | $704.45 | $7,294,997,867,620 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-21 | $697.95 | $7,227,666,424,876 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-22 | $695.85 | $7,205,942,935,747 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-23 | $696.59 | $7,227,229,009,745 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-24 | $696.49 | $7,229,918,025,463 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-25 | $696.49 | $7,229,974,961,573 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-26 | $696.25 | $7,227,469,772,743 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-27 | $696.10 | $7,225,951,476,483 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-28 | $697.76 | $7,243,184,139,037 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-29 | $698.03 | $7,247,030,268,346 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-09-30 | $698.60 | $7,254,015,287,817 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-01 | $699.98 | $7,265,850,838,264 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-02 | $702.06 | $7,282,193,958,152 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-03 | $702.71 | $7,282,429,075,215 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-04 | $702.76 | $7,283,091,490,471 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-05 | $702.39 | $7,279,234,982,485 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-06 | $702.39 | $7,279,234,982,485 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-07 | $704.34 | $7,292,600,286,649 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-08 | $708.19 | $7,316,515,650,427 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-09 | $709.39 | $7,341,526,617,508 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-10 | $709.65 | $7,341,997,969,323 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-11 | $709.65 | $7,341,997,969,323 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-12 | $709.84 | $7,343,974,301,724 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-13 | $715.31 | $7,383,791,220,720 | 11 / 24 |
| 2026-10-14 | $715.66 | $7,380,133,491,341 | 11 / 24 |
| 2026-10-15 | $714.87 | $7,371,395,853,726 | 11 / 24 |
| 2026-10-16 | $720.49 | $7,440,725,246,400 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-17 | $720.49 | $7,440,725,246,400 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-18 | $725.18 | $7,506,261,346,135 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-19 | $725.18 | $7,506,261,346,135 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-20 | $725.25 | $7,512,590,297,441 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-21 | $729.07 | $7,534,800,420,613 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-22 | $728.96 | $7,534,800,420,613 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-23 | $729.33 | $7,538,823,161,059 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-24 | $729.33 | $7,538,823,161,059 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-25 | $731.88 | $7,570,246,522,186 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-26 | $731.88 | $7,570,246,522,186 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-27 | $731.88 | $7,570,246,522,186 | 11 / 23 |
| 2026-10-28 | $731.80 | $7,570,246,522,186 | 11 / 24 |
| 2026-10-29 | $731.88 | $7,570,246,522,186 | 11 / 24 |
| 2026-10-30 | $731.91 | $7,570,246,522,186 | 11 / 24 |
| 2026-10-31 | $731.83 | $7,570,347,170,624 | 11 / 24 |
| 2026-11-01 | $731.83 | $7,570,347,170,624 | 11 / 24 |
| 2026-11-02 | $731.83 | $7,570,347,170,624 | 11 / 24 |
| 2026-11-03 | $733.40 | $7,590,380,678,950 | 11 / 24 |
| 2026-11-04 | $734.78 | $7,602,319,598,480 | 11 / 24 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.