Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$428.91+2.85%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put TSM beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Semiconductors is in supercycle. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisModerate volatility — typically moves about 2% a day.
View RiskNot enough reads yet
TSMC's growth depends on strong AI-driven demand and its leading position in semiconductors. Revenue grew 41% recently, and gross margins expanded to 66%. The stock trades at a premium valuation, reflecting high expectations for continued performance. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 9%. The thesis remains intact, supported by robust demand and earnings momentum. Peer multiples imply a price about 25% above where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. TSM is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 20 analysts currently covering TSM (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 7 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for TSM in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare TSM with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Semiconductors — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put TSM next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Concerns over funding transparency may impact regulatory relations.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $428.91
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $428.91.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
New lab addresses packaging bottleneck, enhancing production capabilities.
Increased cleaning chemistry needs may impact production efficiency.
Increased tool needs indicate strong demand for new products.
Expansion enhances testing efficiency, supporting product development.
Expansion indicates strong growth potential and margin sustainability.
AI growth indicates strong demand for TSM's advanced chips.
AI growth supports TSMC's technology leadership and product relevance.
