Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$126.99+1.01%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TW — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-29
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Credit revenue rose 9.6% in Q3, while U.S. credit trading volume rose 23.9%. Fee mix can widen that gap.
Watch forIn the next reported quarter, credit revenue grows at least 9.6% year over year.
Also watch forIn the next reported quarter, credit revenue growth falls below 9.6% year over year.
Why it matters: Rates volumes grew, but fees per million fell 10.5%. More fee pressure could limit the gain from higher trading activity.
Worry ifRates derivatives fees per million fall more than 10.5% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifRates derivatives fees per million decline 10.5% or less, or rise year over year.
Why it matters: Q3 market data revenue rose 19.6%, partly due to higher fees and data delivery timing under the LSEG deal. Those effects may not repeat at the same pace.
Worry ifMarket Data revenue grows less than 19.6% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifMarket Data revenue grows at least 19.6% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: The deal would add new credit tools and hedge fund clients. A delay or failed approval would block that plan.
Watch forRegulators approve the deal and Tradeweb closes it by June 30, 2027.
Also watch forRegulatory approval is denied, or the deal has not closed by June 30, 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$101 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $310 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,761 loss on $10,000 · 27.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Tradeweb said the deal should add to adjusted earnings in its first full year after closing. The purchase price is about $1.97 billion.
Watch forFor the first full year after closing, Tradeweb reports higher adjusted earnings per share than without the deal.
Also watch forFor the first full year after closing, Tradeweb reports no adjusted earnings per share gain from the deal.