Titan International, Inc. (TWI)
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.33+9.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TWI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -65.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 68.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TWI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-30
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On April 30, 2026, Titan International, Inc. issued a press release reporting its first quarter 2026 financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.
Why it matters: This report will show if Titan can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Watch forThe earnings report shows a big drop in losses. It may also show profits.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows ongoing losses. The financial outlook is getting worse.
Why it matters: The closure will help operations run better and lower costs, which affects future profits.
Supportive ifCost savings from the Jackson plant closure exceed $2 million next year.
Worry ifCost savings from the closure fall short of $2 million next year.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector shows renewed growth, it could benefit Titan. This is key to its recovery.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to over 5% each year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: This revenue range is key for Titan to stay on track for its annual goals. Meeting this target shows strong demand despite market challenges.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $490 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $470 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$214 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $480 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,368 loss on $10,000 · 43.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance shows Titan can control costs and make money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was at or above $115 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was less than $105 million.
Why it matters: This guidance shows Titan can control costs. It also shows they can make money.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA guidance falls within the range of $27 million to $33 million.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA guidance is now below $27 million.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance is key for investor trust after the recent earnings miss.
Supportive ifManagement says full year revenue guidance is still $1.85-$1.95 billion.
Worry ifManagement lowers the full year revenue guidance to below $1.85 billion.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if Titan can maintain revenue growth amid market challenges.
Supportive ifQ3 sales guidance falls within the range of $440 million to $460 million.
Worry ifQ3 sales guidance drops below $440 million.
Why it matters: Completing this closure will help Titan cut costs. It will also make things run better.
Supportive ifClosure of the Jackson plant is completed by the end of October 2026.
Worry ifClosure of the Jackson plant is delayed beyond October 2026.
Why it matters: A better gross margin shows improved cost management. This can help make more money.
Supportive ifGross margin improves beyond 15.5% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin declines below 15.5% in Q3.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this sales target shows Titan can grow despite market problems.
Supportive ifQ3 sales were over $460 million. This shows strong demand and good management.
Worry ifQ3 sales dropped below $440 million. This shows weaker demand and possible execution issues.
Why it matters: Ongoing drops in this segment may show bigger problems in the agricultural market.
Worry ifAgricultural segment sales down more than 5% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifAgricultural segment sales stay the same or grow from last year.