Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$-0.88 → $-0.87 · observed estimates
Twist Bioscience Corp. (TWST)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$142.58+1.63%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TWST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by Q4 FY26 | Management aims to break even on adjusted EBITDA by Q4 FY26. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA remains negative after Q4 FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$-0.88 → $-0.87 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth business with a path-to-profitability thesis, rather than an established earnings compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: revenue and gross margin are improving, but recent financial performance remains weak and profitability progress is limited.
TWST trades at a 4.43-times premium to peers, while the valuation signal is tagged as justified and its model confidence is low. The expectations gap is slightly negative, with optionality driving the valuation difference; the evidence does not point to major pricing fragility.
Near term, revenue growth and gross margin have been strong: management raised FY26 revenue guidance twice, and the latest reported gross margin was 52.8%. Adjusted EBITDA losses narrowed only slightly, so reaching the reiterated Q4 FY26 breakeven goal remains uncertain; consecutive earnings misses and a 43% estimated miss probability add near-term risk.
The multi-year thesis depends on revenue growth translating into sustained margin gains and progress toward breakeven. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, while continued strength from healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TWST’s setup is mixed: growth and margin trends are constructive, but losses, execution risk, and a premium valuation leave the thesis dependent on delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Gross margin is expected above 52% for FY26. |
| Intact |
| Gross margin falls below 50% in FY26 |
Gross margin: 52.76% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: > 52%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 202652.759005 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Gross margin to be above 52%.” “• Gross Margin : Gross margin for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 was 52.8%, up sequentially from 51.6% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue of $442M to $447M in FY26 | A primary condition in Twist Bioscience Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $442 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $442 million in FY26 | Revenue: $118.376M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $442 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 2026118,376,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.64B → $0.65B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.88 | $639,361,728 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.88 | $639,361,728 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.98 | $639,824,228 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.98 | $639,824,228 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.98 | $639,824,228 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.98 | $641,824,228 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.98 | $641,824,228 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.88 | $645,820,971 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.88 | $645,820,971 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.88 | $645,820,971 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.88 | $645,820,971 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.88 | $645,820,971 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.87 | $645,820,971 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.87 | $645,820,971 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.87 | $645,820,971 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.87 | $645,820,971 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.87 | $645,820,971 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.87 | $645,820,971 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.87 | $645,820,971 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.87 | $645,843,194 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.87 | $645,843,194 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.87 | $645,843,194 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.87 | $645,843,194 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.87 | $645,843,194 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.87 | $645,843,194 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.87 | $645,843,194 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.87 | $645,843,194 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.87 | $645,843,194 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.87 | $645,843,194 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.87 | $645,843,194 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.87 | $645,843,194 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.87 | $645,843,194 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.87 | $645,843,194 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.87 | $645,843,194 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.87 | $645,843,194 | 8 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.