Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
10X Genomics, Inc. (TXG)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$58.06-14.01%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TXG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve gross profit margins above Q1 2026 level | The company focuses on improving gross profit, which was $106.2M in Q1. | Improving | gross profit falls below $100M in any quarter | Gross profit: $112.497M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >$106.2M gross profit. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026112,497,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk growth business with some optionality, meaning its future prospects depend on execution that is not yet established. The multi-year view is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and steady revenue, but profitability remains unproven.
TXG is expensive versus peers, and the valuation reflects meaningful expectations for future progress. The evidence labels those expectations as unjustified, though confidence in that assessment is low; valuation fragility is rated low because the concern is expense alone, not a combination of weak fundamentals and turbulence.
Near term, revenue is steady and management raised 2026 guidance to reflect 2%-5% growth over 2025 excluding non-recurring items. Gross margin improved, but cash from operations declined from late 2025 to 2026-Q2, and the business remains loss-making. Elevated risk and a high-miss-rate industry make execution less certain despite recent earnings beats.
The multi-year thesis depends on management sustaining revenue guidance, improving margins, and making progress toward positive operating cash flow. A reversal of the recent guidance increase would damage credibility, while continued weakness in jobs data could pressure cyclical Healthcare names; strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
TXG’s long-term thesis is intact, with signs of progress in revenue and margins offset by losses, weakening operating cash flow, and elevated risk. The 1-3 year view hinges on whether execution turns that progress into durable cash generation. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Gross margin was 74% for the second quarter of 2026, as compared to 72% for the corresponding prior year period.” “Gross margin was 70% for the first quarter of 2026, as compared to 68% for the corresponding prior year period.”
Maintain management confidence and execution | A supporting condition in 10X Genomics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No significant insider selling. | Improving | CEO or CFO sells large share blocks repeatedly | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve and sustain positive cash flow from operations | It targets positive cash flow from operations, with $26.1M achieved in Q1. | Improving | operating cash flow turns negative for two consecutive quarters | Cash from operations: $16.974M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0 USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 202616,974,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain 2026 revenue near $612.5M | A primary condition in 10X Genomics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$612.5M. | Intact | revenue falls below $600M in FY26 | Revenue: $151.036M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$612.5M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026151,036,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.21 → $-0.72 · observed estimates
$0.67B → $0.68B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.21 | $671,472,390 | 3 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.21 | $671,472,950 | 3 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.71 | $668,230,646 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.21 | $671,472,950 | 3 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.21 | $671,472,950 | 3 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.71 | $668,230,646 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.21 | $671,472,950 | 3 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.71 | $668,230,646 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.71 | $668,230,646 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.21 | $671,472,950 | 3 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.21 | $671,472,950 | 3 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.71 | $668,230,646 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.71 | $668,230,646 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.71 | $668,230,646 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.71 | $668,230,646 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.20 | $675,342,220 | 2 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.20 | $675,342,220 | 2 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.71 | $668,230,646 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.71 | $668,230,646 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.71 | $668,230,646 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.71 | $668,230,646 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.71 | $668,230,646 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.71 | $668,230,646 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.71 | $668,230,646 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.71 | $668,230,646 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.72 | $677,391,095 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.72 | $677,391,095 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.72 | $677,391,095 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.72 | $677,391,095 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.72 | $677,391,095 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.72 | $677,391,095 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.72 | $677,391,095 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.72 | $677,391,095 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.72 | $677,391,095 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.72 | $677,391,095 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.72 | $677,391,095 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.72 | $677,391,095 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.72 | $677,391,095 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.72 | $678,196,755 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.72 | $678,196,755 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.72 | $678,196,755 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.72 | $678,196,755 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.72 | $678,196,755 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.72 | $678,196,755 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.72 | $678,196,755 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.72 | $678,196,755 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.71 | $678,422,702 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.71 | $678,422,702 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.71 | $678,422,702 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.71 | $678,422,702 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.71 | $678,422,702 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.71 | $678,422,702 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.71 | $678,422,702 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.71 | $678,422,702 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.71 | $678,422,702 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.71 | $678,422,702 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.71 | $678,422,702 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.71 | $678,422,702 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.73 | $678,716,452 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.73 | $678,716,452 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.73 | $678,716,452 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.73 | $678,716,452 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.73 | $678,716,452 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.73 | $678,716,452 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.73 | $678,716,452 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.73 | $678,716,452 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.73 | $678,716,452 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.73 | $678,716,452 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.72 | $679,335,202 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.72 | $679,335,202 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.72 | $679,335,202 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.72 | $679,335,202 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.72 | $679,335,202 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.72 | $679,335,202 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.72 | $679,294,039 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.72 | $679,294,039 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.72 | $679,294,039 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.72 | $679,294,039 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.72 | $679,294,039 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.72 | $679,579,202 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.71 | $681,554,202 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.70 | $682,100,201 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.70 | $682,110,088 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.70 | $682,110,088 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.70 | $682,110,088 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.70 | $682,110,088 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.70 | $682,091,338 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.70 | $682,091,338 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.70 | $682,091,338 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.72 | $681,564,631 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.72 | $681,779,597 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.72 | $681,779,597 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.72 | $681,779,597 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.72 | $681,779,597 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.72 | $681,779,597 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.72 | $681,779,597 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.72 | $681,779,597 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.72 | $681,779,597 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.72 | $681,779,597 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.72 | $681,779,597 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.72 | $681,779,597 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.72 | $681,779,597 | 8 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.