Travelzoo (TZOO)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.25+1.30%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TZOO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 75.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 64.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
TZOO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 28, 2026, Travelzoo (the "Company") reported its second quarter 2026 financial results. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section and shall not be deem…
Why it matters: Sustained revenue growth is key for Travelzoo's long-term success. It shows demand for memberships is strong.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue grows year-over-year by more than 5%.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth is less than 2% year-over-year.
Why it matters: More licensing revenue can boost profits. It shows growth in new markets.
Supportive ifLicensing revenue grows more than 20% compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifLicensing revenue is flat or down from Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Continuing the share buyback shows trust in the company's value and helps stock price.
Supportive ifThe company repurchases at least 200,000 shares in Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchases occur in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means cost management is working. This shows profits are getting better.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 2026 is over $3.5 million.
Worry ifOperating income for Q2 2026 falls below $3 million.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show management believes in the company's value. This can help support share price.
Supportive ifTravelzoo announces more share buybacks in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo share repurchases announced in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into Travelzoo's performance and future guidance. This is critical for investors.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth and improved guidance.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows falling revenue. It also has lower guidance.
Why it matters: If revenue growth turns positive, it may signal a recovery in the declining sector. This could improve Travelzoo's outlook.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive after being negative for under a year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is still negative. This shows that it is still shrinking.
Why it matters: A smaller operating loss means better cost control. It shows more efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating loss narrows to less than $2.1 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating loss widens beyond $2.8 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Management expects revenue growth in Q3 after a decline in Q2. This will show if the trend is reversing.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue increases year-over-year by more than 5%.
Worry ifQ3 revenue declines year-over-year or grows less than 5%.
Why it matters: If revenue grows in Q3, it shows management expects recovery after a drop in Q2.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue grows year over year, surpassing $23.2 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue declines year over year or stays below $23.2 million.
Why it matters: More renewals would help move to steady revenue and show members are happy.
Supportive ifMembership renewals increase beyond the highest levels seen in Q2.
Worry ifMembership renewals drop from the highest levels recorded in Q2.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$173 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $460 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,172 loss on $10,000 · 51.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.