Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
UBS GROUP AG (UBS)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$50.67+5.56%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.23 → 4.22 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UBS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
earnings per share reach about $3.31 | Earnings per share are rising to $3.31 in 2026. | Intact | EPS falls below $3.0 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financial-sector exposure whose near-term setting may depend on interest rates and the results of large sector peers. The thesis state is unclear because there is not enough recent financial-performance history to assess it.
The valuation evidence gives no usable view of whether UBS is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers, or what expectations are already reflected. The evidence says fragility is low, but that does not establish valuation.
Near-term earnings risk is rated quiet, with a 23% miss probability, but the snapshot also notes recent misses among the company and its industry peers. Beyond that signal, recent results and management execution are not detailed, so the multi-year fundamental path is uncertain.
A key near-term swing factor is whether rates remain high or the Fed begins cutting from the current 3.88%; the snapshot says lower rates could weigh on Financials. Results and guidance from JPM, BAC, and HSBC are another signal: continued strength could support sector momentum, while misses or weaker guidance could weaken it.
For the next 1 to 3 years, UBS has a moderate-risk thesis shaped by rates and sector earnings, but the evidence is too thin to judge its business trajectory or valuation with confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in UBS GROUP AG's published investment case. The stated target is stable leadership with positive US growth. |
| Intact |
| leadership changes cause negative US growth or valuation cuts |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
total revenue reaches about $41.8 billion | UBS is growing revenue to about $42 billion this year. | Intact | total revenue falls below ~$40B in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.14 → $4.22 · observed estimates
$43.88B → $54.87B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.14 | $43,878,462,250 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.14 | $43,878,462,250 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.14 | $43,878,462,250 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.14 | $44,028,492,830 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.14 | $44,028,492,830 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.14 | $44,028,492,830 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.14 | $44,028,492,830 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.14 | $44,028,492,830 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.22 | $54,695,996,862 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.12 | $44,229,939,420 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.12 | $44,229,939,420 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.12 | $44,229,939,420 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.08 | $44,448,127,500 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.22 | $54,672,550,847 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.24 | $54,885,150,847 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.24 | $54,885,150,847 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.24 | $54,885,150,847 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.08 | $44,533,994,420 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.08 | $44,533,994,420 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.24 | $54,885,150,847 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.24 | $54,885,150,847 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.24 | $54,885,150,847 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.24 | $54,885,150,847 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.24 | $54,885,150,847 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.24 | $54,885,150,847 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.25 | $54,991,564,444 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.25 | $54,991,564,444 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.25 | $54,991,564,444 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.25 | $54,991,564,444 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.25 | $54,991,564,444 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.25 | $54,991,564,444 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.25 | $54,991,564,444 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.25 | $54,991,564,444 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.25 | $54,991,564,444 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.25 | $54,991,564,444 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.25 | $54,991,564,444 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.25 | $54,991,564,444 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.25 | $54,991,564,444 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.25 | $54,991,564,444 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.25 | $55,010,534,275 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.25 | $55,010,534,275 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.25 | $55,010,534,275 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.25 | $55,010,534,275 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.25 | $55,010,534,275 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.26 | $55,051,867,608 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.26 | $55,051,867,608 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.26 | $55,051,867,608 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.26 | $55,051,867,608 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.26 | $55,051,867,608 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.26 | $55,051,867,608 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.26 | $55,051,867,608 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.26 | $55,051,867,608 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.26 | $55,051,867,608 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.26 | $55,051,867,608 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.26 | $55,051,867,608 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.26 | $55,051,867,608 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.26 | $55,051,867,608 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.26 | $55,051,867,608 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.26 | $55,051,867,608 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.26 | $55,051,867,608 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.26 | $55,051,867,608 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.23 | $54,964,169,486 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.23 | $54,964,169,486 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.23 | $54,964,169,486 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.23 | $54,964,169,486 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.25 | $54,964,169,486 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.25 | $54,964,169,486 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.25 | $54,955,812,343 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.25 | $54,955,812,343 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.23 | $54,964,373,128 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.23 | $54,964,373,128 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.23 | $54,964,373,128 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.23 | $54,974,757,699 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.23 | $54,951,734,358 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.24 | $54,969,162,930 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.24 | $54,969,162,930 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.24 | $54,969,162,930 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.23 | $54,953,779,338 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.23 | $54,953,779,338 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.23 | $54,953,779,338 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.23 | $54,899,779,338 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.23 | $54,899,779,338 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.23 | $54,899,779,338 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.23 | $54,899,779,338 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.23 | $54,899,779,338 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.23 | $54,899,779,338 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.23 | $54,899,779,338 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.23 | $54,899,779,338 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.22 | $55,147,650,499 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.22 | $55,147,650,499 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.22 | $55,147,650,499 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.22 | $55,147,650,499 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.22 | $55,147,650,499 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.22 | $55,147,650,499 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.22 | $55,147,650,499 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.22 | $54,991,027,687 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.23 | $54,948,282,201 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.23 | $54,948,282,201 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.23 | $54,948,282,201 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.23 | $54,948,282,201 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.23 | $54,948,282,201 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.22 | $54,874,482,088 | 3 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.