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UE
Urban Edge PropertiesNYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$23.92+0.59%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, UE is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 42% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This is because it trades above peer multiples, and growth does not justify that over the longer horizon. If UE cuts guidance after recently raising it, that could hurt credibility. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Retail
- Market cap
- $3.17B
- Employees
- 104
- IPO date
- 2015-03-23
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $23.92. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$16.79consensus
Range $9.10 – $21.54
vs price: +42% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$19.13consensus
Range $18.41 – $28.15
vs price: +25% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfull
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $24, UE's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 56× p/e (3.7× the 15× p/e peer median, and 1.2× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~42% near-term growth vs our ~8% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $17 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
55.6x
peer 14.8x · own history 46.5x
Premium
3.7x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
42%
our forecast 8%
Our fair value
$16.79
range $9.13 – $20.67
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premium
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 42% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
High fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
31st pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.75x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
48th pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral3 analysts, 43% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.11 → $0.11 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 3.4% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing, with decelerating (~1.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$82.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$200.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,197.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
As of June 12, 2026, valuation fell. This change indicates a decrease in how the stock is priced relative to its peers. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, suggesting challenges in the broader market environment. Additionally, the macro backdrop is currently heating, which may influence the stock's performance.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 14d
Watch for operating income to reach $30M in Q2
Why it matters: Reaching this goal would show that management's work to increase income is effective.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Operating income hits or goes above $30M in Q2. This shows good cost management.
Disproves:Operating income drops below $20M in Q2. This shows problems with cost control.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UE yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impact of upcoming economic reports on Real Estate
- Watch for revenue growth across major REITs to re-accelerate
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for UE and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like SPG, O, and KIM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting UE and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If UE reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-29), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like SPG, O, and KIM start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping UE and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits UE and other Real Estate names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-291mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, the Company announced its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. Copies of the Company's Earnings Press Release and Supplemental Disclosure Package are furnished as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 attached hereto, is being "furnished" and shall not be deemed "filed" for p…
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-8.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.