Reading UGI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UGI free→Reading UGI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UGI free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated GasSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, and management's track record is volatile. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, UGI is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 41% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but earnings quality is fragile. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $35.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $35 UGI trades at 11× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $59 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 41% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated strong grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.73x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated fragile grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.04 → $-0.21 (-425.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
2 positive, 4 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$85.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$195.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,963.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if UGI's cash flow and EPS growth trends continue. This is key for investors.
Confirms one read:UGI reports diluted EPS growth over $2.33. This shows strong earnings.
Confirms the other:UGI reports diluted EPS below $2.19. This shows a drop in profits.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UGI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Senior Notes Issued by AmeriGas Partners and Finance Corp. On May 20, 2026, AmeriGas Partners, L.P. (“AmeriGas Partners”) and AmeriGas Finance Corp. (“Finance Corp.” and, together with AmeriGas Partners, the “Issuers”), indirect, wholly owned subsidiaries of UGI Corporation (the “Company”), issued $500.0 million aggregate principal amount of their 6.875% senior unsecured notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes” and the offering of the 2031 Notes, the “Offer…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Gas Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UGI UGI Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
ATO Atmos Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | low |
NFG National Fuel Gas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SWX Southwest Gas Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NJR New Jersey Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Utilities names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
UGI is prioritizing capital allocation and managing its debt effectively.
UGI aims to improve its operational cash flow through various initiatives.
UGI is committed to maintaining profitability and growing its EPS.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if UGI maintains profitability and cash flow growth. This is key for investor confidence.
Confirms:Earnings per share (EPS) growth is reported at 5% or more year over year.
Disproves:EPS growth is reported below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Enhancing cash flow is crucial for UGI's financial health. Strong cash flow supports growth and dividends.
Confirms:Operational cash flow goes up by 10% or more from last quarter.
Disproves:Operational cash flow goes down or stays the same from last quarter.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The information required by this item is included in
General Counsel and Chief Legal Officer — Kathleen Shea Ballay: Ms. Shea Ballay intends to resign from her roles.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement. The information required by
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. As disclosed in the Company’s Current Report on Form 8-K, filed on May 18, 2026, holders of $468,471,000 in aggregate principal amount validly tendered (and did not validly withdraw) their 2027 Notes as of the expiration of the Tender Offer (as defined therein). On May 20, 2026, the Issuers accepted for purchase (and purchased) the 2027 Notes validly tendered as of the expiration for a total consideration of $1,011.18 for each $1,000 principal a…