U-Haul Holding Co (UHAL)
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$67.19-0.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UHAL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 104.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 98.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
UHAL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, U-Haul Holding Company (the “Company“) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished pursuant to this
Why it matters: The company is buying back shares. This shows management thinks the company is valuable.
Supportive ifNew share buyback plans announced, totaling over $100 million.
Worry ifNo new share repurchase announcements in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Less spending on CapEx could lower fleet depreciation. This could help make more money.
Supportive ifCapEx on rental trucks decreases by more than 10% compared to the previous year.
Worry ifCapEx on rental trucks goes up or stays the same. This shows ongoing financial strain.
Why it matters: Better earnings from operations show more profit and efficiency. This is key for overall profit.
Supportive ifEarnings from operations for Q3 exceed $250 million.
Worry ifEarnings from operations for Q3 fall below $250 million.
Why it matters: Growth in self-storage revenue shows demand. This helps overall earnings and shows good management.
Supportive ifSelf-storage revenues increase year over year by more than 6.8%.
Worry ifSelf-storage revenues grow less than 6.8% or decline year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$129 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $246 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,912 loss on $10,000 · 29.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Revenue trends will show if U-Haul can handle market challenges well.
Worry ifRevenue stabilizes or grows in Q2, showing recovery from the decline to $1.27B.
Less concerning ifRevenue continues to decline below $1.27B in Q2.
Why it matters: Updates on the dealer network show growth potential and market reach. This can enhance fleet utilization and revenue.
Supportive ifManagement says the number of independent dealers grew by more than 10% since last quarter.
Worry ifThere is no significant growth in the independent dealer network.
Why it matters: Better occupancy rates mean more use of storage units. This can increase revenue.
Supportive ifSame store occupancy rates stabilize or increase from the current 88.3%.
Worry ifSame store occupancy rates decline further from the current 88.3%.
Why it matters: Fewer losses show better management of rental equipment. This can lead to more profit.
Supportive ifNet losses from equipment disposal decrease to below $1 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNet losses from equipment disposal increase beyond $2 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better occupancy rates show more demand for storage units. This can help revenue grow.
Supportive ifSelf-storage occupancy rates stay above 90% for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifOccupancy rates drop below 85% for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Lower depreciation helps make more money. This is a key goal for management.
Supportive ifFleet depreciation expense drops by over $10 million each quarter.
Worry ifFleet depreciation costs go up by more than $10 million every quarter.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps keep operations running. It is key for making money again.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow goes over $400 million for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifOperating cash flow drops below $300 million for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Growth in the dealer network could drive more transactions and improve fleet utilization.
Watch forManagement adds 50 or more independent dealers in the next quarter.
Also watch forNo updates on dealer network expansion or a decrease in dealer count.