Universal Health Services (UHS)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$169.65+0.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UHS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -37.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers
UHS — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-21
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Issuance of Senior Secured Notes On August 20, 2026, Universal Health Services, Inc. (the “Issuer”), completed the public offering of (i) $600,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 5.500% Senior Secured Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”), and (ii) $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 6.000% Senior Secured Notes due 2036 (the “2036 Notes “and, together with the 2031 Notes, the “Notes”), each guaranteed on a senior secured basis by all of…
Why it matters: The new credit agreement can improve UHS's financial options and support growth.
Watch forUHS utilizes the new $700 million delayed draw term loan for growth initiatives.
Also watch forUHS does not draw on the new credit facility or faces delays.
Why it matters: Changes in Medicaid may hurt UHS's revenue. It could also raise unpaid care.
Worry ifGood news on Medicaid funding or renewals can help stabilize revenue.
Less concerning ifBad news on Medicaid funding or possible cuts can hurt.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue forecast would show strong growth momentum for UHS.
Supportive ifManagement raises the revenue forecast by more than 5% during the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement keeps the revenue forecast the same or lowers it.
Why it matters: Strong EPS growth is important for keeping investor confidence and company value high.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS growth remains above 5.5% in Q2 2026 compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS growth falls below 5.5% in Q2 2026 compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it may mean less demand or problems with operations.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth below 7.1% compared to Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue growth meets or exceeds 7.1% compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Earnings that meet or exceed guidance would show UHS's growth. It would also show management's confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 net income attributable to UHS meets or exceeds the guided range of $22.64 to $24.52 per share.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net income falls short of the guided range.
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost management and efficiency. These are important for making money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin rises above 14% in Q3 from the last quarter.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin drops below 13% in Q3. This suggests there may be cost issues.
Why it matters: Closing this deal would grow UHS's outpatient services. It would also add new revenue sources.
Supportive ifTalkspace is now acquired. All regulatory approvals will be done by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe deal does not close. This is due to problems with approvals from regulators or stockholders.
Why it matters: News on stock buybacks shows that management believes in the company's value and future.
Supportive ifManagement announces a new share buyback plan over $200 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifManagement stops or cuts the stock buyback program due to money issues.
Why it matters: Strong EBITDA growth shows UHS can manage costs. It also shows they can increase revenue.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 2026 is over $677.9 million. This is higher than Q2 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 2026 falls below $650 million.
Why it matters: Changes could affect UHS's revenue. This is especially true for government programs.
Worry ifNo big changes in Medicaid funding or program renewals have been seen.
Less concerning ifReports show cuts or changes to Medicaid funding. This could hurt UHS's revenue.
Why it matters: Higher capital spending may mean aggressive growth. But it could also hurt cash flow.
Worry ifCapital spending for 2026 is over $1.1 billion.
Less concerning ifCapital spending stays between $950 million and $1.1 billion.
Why it matters: Completing this purchase could help UHS's services. It may also boost its market position.
Supportive ifA news release confirms the Talkspace purchase is complete.
Worry ifA news release says there are delays or problems with the purchase.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth is important for keeping investor trust and reaching goals.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth is over 8% compared to last year, showing strong performance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 5% compared to last year. This raises worries about growth.
Why it matters: Good management of capital spending is key for UHS's financial health.
Watch forManagement says capital spending will drop by more than 10% in the next call.
Also watch forManagement says capital spending will rise by more than 10%.
Why it matters: Better cash flow helps support ongoing operations. It also helps with possible acquisitions.
Supportive ifNet cash from operations for Q3 2026 is over $845 million.
Worry ifNet cash from operations drops below $800 million.
Why it matters: Successful integration will show UHS can enhance its behavioral health services. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifUHS shares news of key steps in adding Talkspace's services next quarter.
Worry ifThere are reports of problems in integration, causing delays or service issues.
Why it matters: Staying within the $950M to $1.1B range shows disciplined spending and supports growth plans.
Supportive ifManagement says capital spending will be between $950M and $1.1B for 2026.
Worry ifIf capital spending goes over $1.1B, it may show overreach or poor management.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is key for funding operations and future growth plans.
Supportive ifNet cash from operations stabilizes or rises from $845 million in H1 2026.
Worry ifNet cash from operations drops sharply from $845 million.
Why it matters: Management's EPS guidance shows their trust in ongoing growth and making money.
Watch forManagement confirms EPS guidance between $22.28 and $23.65 per share for 2026.
Also watch forManagement lowers EPS guidance, which suggests problems in reaching growth goals.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$114 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $293 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,208 loss on $10,000 · 42.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.