Reading UMBF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UMBF free→
UMBF
UMB Financial Corp.NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$135.37+2.16%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady, indicating a stable leadership. However, the sector backdrop presents a headwind, which may affect future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 3% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from UMBF and the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Banks - Regional
- Market cap
- $10.02B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-03-18
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-28
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $135.37. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$138.09consensus
Range $130.16 – $154.21
vs price: -2% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$177.59consensus
Range $162.42 – $278.12
vs price: -24% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $135 UMBF trades at 11× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $139 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $140–$170. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
11.1x
peer 12.4x · own history 10.8x
Premium
0.9x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-3%
our forecast 50%
Our fair value
$139.18
range $130.16 – $154.21
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 50%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
75th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.16x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
43rd pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish12 analysts, 83% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $3.09 → $3.09 (+0.0% / 30d). 11 raised, 1 cut, 12 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme capital-markets/rates.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$93.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$238.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,857.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
Valuation changed. It rose to a label of "full." The sector backdrop fell. It is now a headwind.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 7d
Watch for the Consumer Price Index on June 10
Why it matters: CPI affects interest rates. It also impacts how much consumers spend. This matters for UMB's business.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:CPI shows a significant increase over the previous month.
Confirms the other:CPI shows a decrease or no change from the previous month.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UMBF yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for changes in FOMC interest rate policy on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting UMBF and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If UMBF raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-01-27), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If UMBF cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-01-27), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on UMBF and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping UMBF and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-281mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026, UMB Financial Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the financial results for the Company for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and the information is hereby incorporated by reference herein. The Company does not incorporate by reference information presented at any website referenced in the press release. The Company is furnishing a copy of material…
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+7.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.