Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
UMB Financial Corp. (UMBF)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$138.51+1.78%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.97 → 14.13 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UMBF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating income rises from $236.6M to at least $331.3M | A primary condition in UMB Financial Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $331.3M. | Intact | operating income falls below $236.6M in any quarter through 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $341.931M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $331.3M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 2026341,931,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
UMBF is a financial company with a recent record of strong performance and robust earnings quality. Its multi-year view is intact, and recent momentum has improved, though delivery on its expansion initiative is still pending.
The evidence describes UMBF as cheap, but its valuation is slightly above peers. Expectations are broadly aligned with the business setup, and the priced-in signal is justified with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a large expectations mismatch.
Recent results are strong, including a reported earnings beat, while the supplied evidence shows loan growth and asset-quality delivery in Q2 and growth in fee income. Near term, the miss risk is low, but past deep misses and recent peer misses warrant attention; the evidence does not provide a Q3 update on fee income or acquisition integration.
The multi-year view depends in part on expanding retail presence through El Dorado and sustaining loan growth without weakening asset quality. Near term, a guidance cut or rate cuts from the current level would be negative factors, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support sector momentum.
UMBF’s 1-to-3-year thesis looks intact, with strong recent performance and a valuation described as cheap, though above peers. The main tests are sustained execution, acquisition delivery, and the effect of interest rates. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Revenue grows from $738M to at least $867M | A primary condition in UMB Financial Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $867M. | Intact | revenue falls below $738M in any quarter through 2026-Q1 | Revenue: $895.395M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $867M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 2026895,395,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Share buyback program continues to enhance shareholder value | Share buybacks add value for shareholders. | Intact | no buyback announcements or buyback program halted in next 4 quarters | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.77 → $14.13 · observed estimates
$3.14B → $3.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $13.77 | $3,140,921,910 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $13.77 | $3,140,921,910 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $13.77 | $3,151,035,586 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $13.77 | $3,140,921,910 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $13.77 | $3,140,921,910 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $13.72 | $3,140,921,910 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $13.79 | $3,156,927,722 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $13.88 | $3,157,539,270 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $13.87 | $3,165,991,216 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $13.90 | $3,157,539,270 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $13.90 | $3,157,539,270 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $13.91 | $3,165,991,216 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $13.91 | $3,158,872,600 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $13.91 | $3,165,991,216 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $13.93 | $3,167,199,114 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $13.91 | $3,158,872,600 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $13.91 | $3,158,872,600 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $13.95 | $3,169,116,380 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $13.93 | $3,167,199,114 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $13.93 | $3,167,199,114 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $13.93 | $3,167,199,114 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $13.93 | $3,167,199,114 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $13.93 | $3,167,199,114 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $13.93 | $3,167,199,114 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $13.93 | $3,167,199,114 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $13.97 | $3,176,404,743 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $13.95 | $3,166,277,039 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $13.95 | $3,166,277,039 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $13.95 | $3,166,277,039 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $13.95 | $3,166,277,039 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $13.95 | $3,166,277,039 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $13.95 | $3,166,277,039 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $13.95 | $3,166,277,039 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $13.95 | $3,166,277,039 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $13.95 | $3,169,053,953 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $13.95 | $3,169,053,953 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $13.95 | $3,169,053,953 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $13.95 | $3,169,053,953 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $13.95 | $3,169,053,953 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $13.95 | $3,169,053,953 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $13.95 | $3,169,053,953 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $13.95 | $3,169,053,953 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $13.95 | $3,169,053,953 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $13.95 | $3,169,053,953 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $13.95 | $3,169,053,953 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $13.96 | $3,170,353,387 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $13.96 | $3,170,353,387 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $13.96 | $3,170,353,387 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $13.96 | $3,170,353,387 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $13.96 | $3,170,353,387 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $13.96 | $3,170,353,387 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $13.96 | $3,170,787,970 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $13.96 | $3,170,787,970 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $13.96 | $3,170,787,970 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $13.96 | $3,170,787,970 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $13.96 | $3,170,787,970 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $13.96 | $3,170,787,970 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $13.96 | $3,170,787,970 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $13.96 | $3,170,787,970 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $13.96 | $3,170,787,970 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $13.98 | $3,170,787,970 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $13.98 | $3,170,787,970 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $13.98 | $3,170,787,970 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $13.98 | $3,170,787,970 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $13.98 | $3,170,787,970 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $13.97 | $3,169,710,315 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $13.97 | $3,169,710,315 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $13.97 | $3,169,671,854 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.97 | $3,169,671,854 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.97 | $3,168,837,042 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.97 | $3,168,837,042 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.97 | $3,168,837,042 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.97 | $3,168,837,042 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.97 | $3,167,027,323 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.94 | $3,167,027,323 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.94 | $3,166,319,630 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.95 | $3,168,950,400 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $13.95 | $3,168,950,400 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $13.95 | $3,168,950,400 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.95 | $3,168,950,400 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.95 | $3,168,950,400 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $13.95 | $3,168,950,400 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $13.95 | $3,168,950,400 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $13.95 | $3,168,950,400 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $13.95 | $3,168,950,400 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $13.95 | $3,168,950,400 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.96 | $3,173,009,338 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $13.96 | $3,173,027,323 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $13.96 | $3,167,279,600 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $13.96 | $3,167,279,600 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $13.96 | $3,167,279,600 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $13.96 | $3,167,279,600 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $13.96 | $3,167,279,600 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $13.96 | $3,167,279,600 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $13.96 | $3,167,260,118 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $14.00 | $3,190,110,118 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $14.12 | $3,239,785,681 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $14.12 | $3,250,087,445 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $14.12 | $3,250,087,445 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $14.12 | $3,250,087,445 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $14.12 | $3,184,233,884 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $14.13 | $3,184,233,884 | 12 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.