UMB Financial Corp. (UMBF)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$143.76+0.22%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UMBF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
UMBF — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-28
Other Events On July 28, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the Board of Directors of the Company had declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share that is payable on October 1, 2026 to stockholders of record of the Company's common stock as of the close of business on September 10, 2026. The Board of Directors of the Company also declared a dividend of $193.75 per share of the Company's Series B 7.750% preferred stock, which results in a dividend of $0.484375 per deposita…
Why it matters: If operating income is stable or falling, it may show cost problems. This worries investors.
Worry ifOperating income grew more than 20% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifOperating income grew less than 20% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in business momentum.
Worry ifRevenue growth is over 30% year over year. This shows strong performance.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth falls below 30% year over year, suggesting weakening demand.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if UMB Financial continues its strong revenue and profit growth.
Supportive ifGAAP net income for Q2 2026 exceeds $255.6 million reported in Q1 2026.
Worry ifGAAP net income for Q2 2026 falls below $200 million.
Why it matters: More dividends would show good financial health. It shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$107 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $242 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,858 loss on $10,000 · 18.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback program show that management trusts the company's value.
Supportive ifThey announced more share repurchases. This is beyond the 2 million shares allowed.
Worry ifNo updates or a reduction in the buyback program.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio shows better cost control. It helps meet management's goals.
Supportive ifEfficiency ratio drops to below 48% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio stays above 48% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth is important for UMB's financial health and management's goals.
Watch forRevenue growth in Q2 2026 exceeds 31.1% year-over-year growth reported in Q1 2026.
Also watch forRevenue growth in Q2 2026 falls below 20% year-over-year.
Why it matters: More charge-offs mean weaker asset quality. This shows poor risk management.
Worry ifNet charge-offs are over 25 basis points of average loans. This shows higher credit risk.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain at or below 19 basis points, showing strong asset quality.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the company's strong performance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 30% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains above 30% year over year.
Why it matters: The buyback could improve earnings per share and boost shareholder value. Its effectiveness will be key.
Supportive ifPositive impact on earnings per share reported in Q3 results.
Worry ifNo significant change in earnings per share reported in Q3 results.
Why it matters: News about the share buyback may show that management trusts the company's value.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of completed buybacks of at least 500,000 shares.
Worry ifNo updates or a cut in buyback authorization.
Why it matters: Sustained loan growth is key to UMB's financial health and aligns with management's goals.
Supportive ifAverage loans grow more than 12% on a linked-quarter annualized basis in Q3.
Worry ifAverage loans grow less than 10% on a linked-quarter annualized basis in Q3.
Why it matters: Low net charge-offs show good asset quality. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifNet charge-offs remain below 20 basis points of average loans in Q3.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed 20 basis points of average loans in Q3.
Why it matters: Growth in noninterest income helps UMB diversify its revenue. This supports its strategy.
Supportive ifNoninterest income grows more than 15% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifNoninterest income growth falls below 10% year over year in Q3.