Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Upland Software Inc (UPLD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.93-16.38%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.33 → 5.66 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UPLD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA improves to about $56M in 2026 | Profit improves with adjusted EBITDA guided around $56 million. | Broken | adjusted EBITDA falls below $51.7M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making company with a fragile earnings profile, not a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state after momentum weakened and the signal shifted to mixed.
UPLD is described as cheap versus peers, while the pricing signal is tagged justified and overall fragility is low. The expectations gap is negative, but the evidence does not explain its scale, so how much weakness the market already assumes is unclear.
Near term, revenue guidance has narrowed and revenue has declined, mainly after divestitures; adjusted EBITDA has stayed close to guidance with a steady stated margin. AI product work continues, but no revenue effect is quantified, while a recent earnings miss, a listing-rule notice, and weaker momentum add risk.
The next guidance update is a key swing factor: a cut would signal further execution strain. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on whether AI offerings lead to measurable business progress; lower interest rates and stabilization among large technology peers are possible sector tailwinds, not company-specific proof.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, UPLD’s case depends on stabilizing execution and turning product innovation into measurable progress, with high risk and only medium evidence confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Upland Software Inc's published investment case. The stated target is No further disruptive executive departures in next 4 quarters. |
| Improving |
| Additional key executive departures occur within next 4 quarters |
0 disruptive departures vs 0 allowed CFO transition completed via retirement and external hire; no other key executive departures reported in recent news. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue stabilizes near $197M in 2026 | A primary condition in Upland Software Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~$197M total revenue. | Broken | annual revenue falls below $192.5M in FY26 | Revenue: $47.525M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$197M total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202647,525,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.05 → $5.66 · observed estimates
$0.20B → $0.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.05 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.05 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.05 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.05 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.05 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.77 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.77 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.77 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.77 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.77 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.77 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.77 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.77 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.77 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.77 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.77 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.77 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.77 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.77 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.77 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.77 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.77 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.77 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.77 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.77 | $199,326,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.33 | $194,230,100 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.66 | $188,960,200 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.