Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$80.97+0.48%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · URBN
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $81 URBN trades at 15× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median, but our blended $73 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $72–$100. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $88 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $89.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $47.19 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $50.58 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $59.54 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$72.00 – $100.00 (median $89.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-08-27
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 31% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 4.7 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $3.69/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $151.22 |
| 17.9 |
| 8.28 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $32.71 | 19.3 | 1.69 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $87.58 | 16.3 | 5.36 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $25.84 | 0.4 | 71.14 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $76.27 | 14.2 | 5.36 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $40.35 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $70.57 | 13.2 | 5.36 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $95.40 | 16.3 | 5.84 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $49.25 | 19.3 | 2.55 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $131.39 | 16.3 | 8.04 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $34.59 | 0.4 | 95.21 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $114.42 | 14.2 | 8.04 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $105.86 | 13.2 | 8.04 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $64.71 | 19.3 | 3.35 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $158.82 | 16.3 | 9.72 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $41.81 | 0.4 | 115.08 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $138.30 | 14.2 | 9.72 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $127.96 | 13.2 | 9.72 | Analyst | medium |