Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$87.57-4.59%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.86 → 6.84 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for URBN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Retail segment net sales growth | Urban Outfitters grows retail sales about 8% yearly. | Intact | Retail segment net sales growth falls below 5% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Total Retail segment net sales increased 8.0%, with comparable Retail segment net sales increasing 6.2%.” “Total Retail segment net sales increased 8.0%, with comparable Retail segment net sales increasing 5.6%.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a multi-segment retail growth story, with recent strength in retail, subscription, and wholesale sales. The thesis is intact, though earnings quality is fragile and the latest signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
Valuation is described as cheap, and URBN trades at a modest premium to peers. The expectations gap is small, while the pricing assessment says the weak execution quality is justified rather than a broader warning of excessive expectations.
Near term, management priorities are showing progress: retail sales growth has edged higher, while subscription and wholesale sales remain strong despite slower subscription growth than in the first quarter. Earnings quality remains fragile, and the company recently missed a quarter; a guidance cut on the next call is a stated risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued growth across the three segments and management maintaining execution. Consumer discretionary bellwethers could provide an early signal: continued strong results may support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
For a one-to-three-year view, recent business performance supports an intact thesis, but fragile earnings quality and a mixed signal leave execution and sector conditions as key swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Share repurchase program execution | A supporting condition in Urban Outfitters, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase >=$300 million per quarter. | Intact | Share repurchases fall below $150 million per quarter next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “During the six months ended July 31, 2026, the Company repurchased and subsequently retired 4.6 million shares for approximately $300 million.” “During the three months ended April 30, 2026, the Company repurchased and subsequently retired 4.6 million shares for approximately $300 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Subscription segment net sales growth | Subscription sales jump over 30%. | Intact | Subscription segment net sales growth falls below 20% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Subscription segment net sales increased 28.6% primarily driven by a 30.4% increase in average active subscribers in the current quarter versus the prior year quarter.” “Subscription segment net sales increased 34.5% primarily driven by a 33.3% increase in average active subscribers in the current quarter versus the prior year quarter.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Wholesale segment net sales growth | Wholesale sales rise nearly 25%. | Intact | Wholesale segment net sales growth falls below 10% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Wholesale segment net sales increased 18.6% driven by a 19.2% increase in FP Group wholesale sales due to an increase in sales to specialty customers and department stores.” “Wholesale segment net sales increased 24.8% driven by a 26.2% increase in FP Group wholesale sales due to an increase in sales to specialty customers.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.75 → $6.84 · observed estimates
$7.15B → $7.22B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.75 | $7,150,256,179 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.78 | $7,160,023,847 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.78 | $7,160,023,847 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.78 | $7,160,023,847 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.78 | $7,160,023,847 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.78 | $7,160,023,847 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.78 | $7,160,023,847 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.78 | $7,160,023,847 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.78 | $7,160,023,847 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.78 | $7,160,023,847 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.85 | $7,211,980,202 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.85 | $7,211,980,202 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.85 | $7,211,980,202 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.87 | $7,219,318,222 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.87 | $7,219,318,222 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.87 | $7,219,318,222 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.87 | $7,219,318,222 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.87 | $7,219,318,222 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.87 | $7,219,318,222 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.87 | $7,219,318,222 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.87 | $7,219,318,222 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.87 | $7,219,318,222 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.86 | $7,219,562,020 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.86 | $7,219,562,020 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.86 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.84 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.84 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.84 | $7,216,848,519 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.84 | $7,215,152,479 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.84 | $7,215,152,479 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.85 | $7,214,964,004 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.85 | $7,214,964,004 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.85 | $7,214,964,004 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.84 | $7,217,043,696 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.84 | $7,217,043,696 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.84 | $7,217,043,696 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.84 | $7,217,043,696 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.84 | $7,217,043,696 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.84 | $7,217,043,696 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.84 | $7,217,043,696 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.84 | $7,217,043,696 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.84 | $7,217,043,696 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.84 | $7,217,043,696 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.84 | $7,217,043,696 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.84 | $7,217,043,696 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.84 | $7,217,043,696 | 6 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 24, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.