Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$80.97+0.48%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · URBN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
URBN — credit agreement
Dated 2026-05-26
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 19, 2026, Urban Outfitters, Inc. (the “Company”) and certain of its domestic subsidiaries entered into the fifth amendment (the “Fifth Amendment”) to the Company’s amended and restated credit agreement (the “Amended Credit Agreement”), amending the Company’s asset-based revolving credit facility with certain lenders, including JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent, and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and Wells Fargo Bank, National Ass…
Why it matters: A big drop could mean higher costs or discounts. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifGross profit rate declines more than 50 basis points compared to the prior year.
Less concerning ifGross profit rate improves or declines less than 50 basis points.
Why it matters: Changes to the credit agreement can impact how the company manages its money. This can also affect its operations.
Watch forA press release shows better terms or lower interest rates in the credit agreement.
Also watch forA press release shows stricter terms or higher fees in the credit agreement.
Why it matters: Earnings reports show how Urban Outfitters is doing. They also show market conditions. Changes in these results can change how investors feel.
Watch forEarnings report shows sales and profit margins are better than expected.
Also watch forEarnings report shows sales and profit margins are lower than expected.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth may change the consumer discretionary sector. It might show weaker demand for Urban Outfitters' products.
Worry ifRevenue growth is below the median for the sector. This shows weakening demand.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth is above the median. This suggests strong demand continues.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$169 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $373 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,632 loss on $10,000 · 26.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks can affect how investors feel. They also change how money is spent.
Watch forMore shares bought back or retired beyond the current 10 million will be announced.
Also watch forNo new share buybacks announced or a cut in the buyback program.
Why it matters: A drop below 6% growth would signal a potential slowdown in demand and hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifRetail segment net sales growth of 6% or more for Q3.
Less concerning ifRetail segment net sales growth below 6% for Q3.
Why it matters: If growth drops below 30%, it may show less interest in the subscription model.
Worry ifSubscription segment net sales growth of 30% or more for Q3.
Less concerning ifSubscription segment net sales growth below 30% for Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in wholesale growth may show problems in the retail market.
Worry ifWholesale segment net sales growth of 15% or more for Q3.
Less concerning ifWholesale segment net sales growth below 15% for Q3.
Why it matters: More share buybacks can show that management believes in the company's value.
Supportive ifThey announced share buybacks of $100 million or more in Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchase announcements in Q3.