Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$91.78+5.83%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · URBN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers
URBN — credit agreement
Dated 2026-05-26
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 19, 2026, Urban Outfitters, Inc. (the “Company”) and certain of its domestic subsidiaries entered into the fifth amendment (the “Fifth Amendment”) to the Company’s amended and restated credit agreement (the “Amended Credit Agreement”), amending the Company’s asset-based revolving credit facility with certain lenders, including JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent, and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and Wells Fargo Bank, National Ass…
Why it matters: Nuuly sales rose 28.6% in Q2 as active subscribers grew 30.4%. Slower growth could weaken a key source of sales gains.
Watch forThe November 24 results show Nuuly sales growth above 25% year over year. Active subscriber growth is also above 25%.
Also watch forNuuly sales growth falls below 15% year over year, or active subscriber growth falls below 15%.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted gross margin rose just 4 basis points. Anthropologie markdowns and tariffs weighed on the rate, despite higher sales.
Watch forThe November 24 results show adjusted gross margin up at least 25 basis points year over year.
Also watch forAdjusted gross margin falls at least 25 basis points year over year, with markdowns still weighing on the rate.
Why it matters: Retail inventory rose 12.0%, while Retail sales grew 8.0%. If stock keeps rising faster than sales, markdown pressure may grow.
Worry ifRetail inventory growth exceeds Retail sales growth by at least 5 percentage points in the next results.
Less concerning ifRetail inventory growth is at or below Retail sales growth in the next results.
Why it matters: Retail sales grew 8.0% in Q2, and comparable sales grew 6.2%. A sharp slowdown would weaken the main growth story.
Watch forIn the November 24 results, Retail sales growth is at least 8% year over year. Comparable sales are above 6%.
Also watch forRetail sales growth falls below 6% year over year, or comparable sales fall below 4%.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $362 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,632 loss on $10,000 · 26.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: FP Group sales to wholesale customers rose 19.2% in Q2. A sharp drop could show less demand from stores that carry its brands.
Watch forThe November 24 results show FP Group wholesale sales growth above 15% year over year.
Also watch forFP Group wholesale sales growth falls below 5% year over year or turns negative.