Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
USANA Health Sciences, Inc. (USNA)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.33-3.63%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.77 → 1.77 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for USNA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA between $101M and $109M in fiscal 2026 | A supporting condition in USANA Health Sciences, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $101 million and <= $109 million. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $101 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a challenged business in strategic transition, not a clear durable-growth story at present. The long-term thesis is on watch: management has kept emphasizing diversification, but recent results show limited delivery so far.
The valuation signal is tagged as justified, with the model showing expectations broadly aligned with the business outlook and only a small negative expectations gap. USNA trades at a modest premium to peers, so the evidence does not point to a clear valuation cushion. Fragility is rated low, but that does not remove the operating risks.
Near term, results may remain uneven: revenue declined from the first to the second quarter of 2026, net income turned negative, and management cut its full-year sales and earnings guidance. The next earnings release is a key risk after a recent miss and erratic surprises. Over the multi-year view, the shift to an omnichannel wellness company could broaden the business, but evidence of progress remains limited.
The thesis weakens if management cuts guidance again or if weakening job growth adds pressure to consumer-facing businesses. It could gain support if strong results and higher guidance from sector peers sustain momentum, while management shows clearer progress in product innovation, technology, and diversified sales channels. Recent agreement and financing-related filings add context, but the evidence snapshot does not explain their business impact.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, USNA remains a watch-stage transition story with elevated risk, mixed execution, and a sector backdrop that offers some support. The key question is whether management can turn its strategic shift into stronger operating results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins support EPS between $1.11 and $1.45. |
| Broken |
| Diluted EPS falls below $1.11 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $-1.16 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.11 and <= $1.45 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 2026-1.16 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Fiscal year 2026 revenue between $925M and $1.0B | A primary condition in USANA Health Sciences, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $925 million and <= $1.0 billion. | Broken | Revenue falls below $925 million in FY26 | Revenue: $223.273M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $925 million and <= $1.0 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 2026223,273,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.77 → $1.77 · observed estimates
$1.00B → $0.95B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.77 | $1,002,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.77 | $1,002,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.77 | $1,002,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.77 | $1,002,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.77 | $1,002,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.77 | $1,002,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.77 | $1,002,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.77 | $1,002,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.77 | $1,002,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.77 | $1,002,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.77 | $1,002,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.77 | $1,002,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.77 | $1,002,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.77 | $1,002,404,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.77 | $954,447,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.77 | $954,447,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.77 | $954,447,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.77 | $954,447,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.77 | $954,447,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.77 | $954,447,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.77 | $954,447,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.77 | $954,447,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.77 | $954,447,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.77 | $954,447,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.77 | $954,447,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.77 | $949,840,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.77 | $945,008,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.