Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
United Therapeutics (UTHR)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$565.72-7.03%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
28.98 → 30.57 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UTHR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective capital return via share buybacks | A supporting condition in United Therapeutics's published investment case. The stated target is Buyback program executed as planned. | Intact | Buyback program is suspended or materially reduced | Buyback program active ($2B new + $477.6M ASR) vs target: executed as planned UTHR authorized a new $2B buyback in Oct 2026 and executed a $477.6M ASR in Sep 2026, demonstrating consistent capital return execution. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a healthcare business with a multi-year thesis tied to commercial execution and regulatory progress. The thesis is intact, but management execution and earnings quality are rated neutral, and sustained portfolio growth has not yet been established.
The valuation evidence describes UTHR as cheap versus peers, with expectations modestly below the model’s view and low valuation fragility. Confidence in that assessment is medium, so it is not a firm signal about the business outlook.
Near term, Tyvaso DPI has shown progress: revenue rose from the first to the second quarter of 2026, alongside reported records in starts, referrals, and patient counts. Total revenue remained below the 2025 first-quarter level in the supplied comparisons, so the broader return to sequential growth is not yet established; regulatory submissions for ralinepag and nebulized Tyvaso are also an ongoing focus.
The multi-year view hinges on sustaining Tyvaso DPI momentum, advancing the two regulatory programs, and returning the commercial portfolio to consistent sequential growth. Near term, guidance cuts or continued weakening in jobs data are risks, while strong results and higher guidance from healthcare peers could support sector momentum.
For the next one to three years, the thesis is intact but depends on turning Tyvaso DPI execution and regulatory progress into sustained portfolio growth. Recent financial performance is strong, but the evidence for broader commercial progress remains limited. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain strong operating income |
| A primary condition in United Therapeutics's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain operating income near $325M. |
| Broken |
| Operating income falls below $300M next 4 quarters |
Operating income: $307.8M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Maintain operating income near $325M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 2026307,800,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful new product approvals and launches | The company benefits from new FDA approvals and strong product franchises. | Intact | No major product approvals or launches in FY26 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Deliver durable double-digit revenue growth | A primary condition in United Therapeutics's published investment case. The stated target is >=11% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 4.13% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=11% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20264.12758 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$31.49 → $30.57 · observed estimates
$3.68B → $3.55B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $31.49 | $3,679,025,400 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $31.51 | $3,680,228,530 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $31.51 | $3,680,228,530 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $31.51 | $3,680,228,530 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $32.84 | $3,675,096,610 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $32.84 | $3,675,096,610 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $32.84 | $3,675,096,610 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $31.51 | $3,680,228,530 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $32.84 | $3,675,096,610 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $32.84 | $3,675,096,610 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $31.51 | $3,680,228,530 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $32.84 | $3,675,096,610 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $32.84 | $3,675,096,610 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $32.84 | $3,675,096,610 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $29.43 | $3,481,038,640 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $29.28 | $3,509,470,880 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $29.43 | $3,481,038,640 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $28.94 | $3,475,097,850 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $28.94 | $3,475,097,850 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $29.43 | $3,481,038,640 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $29.43 | $3,481,038,640 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $29.43 | $3,481,038,640 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $29.43 | $3,481,038,640 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $29.43 | $3,481,038,640 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $29.43 | $3,481,038,640 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $28.90 | $3,442,713,835 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $28.90 | $3,442,713,835 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $28.90 | $3,442,713,835 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $28.90 | $3,442,713,835 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $28.90 | $3,442,713,835 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $28.90 | $3,442,713,835 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $28.90 | $3,442,717,004 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $28.90 | $3,442,717,004 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $28.90 | $3,442,717,004 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $28.90 | $3,441,732,388 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $28.78 | $3,432,406,146 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $28.78 | $3,432,406,146 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $28.78 | $3,432,406,146 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $28.78 | $3,432,406,146 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $28.78 | $3,432,406,146 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $28.78 | $3,432,406,146 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $28.78 | $3,432,406,146 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $28.98 | $3,462,918,632 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $28.98 | $3,462,919,718 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $28.98 | $3,462,919,718 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $28.98 | $3,462,919,718 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $28.98 | $3,462,919,718 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $28.98 | $3,462,919,718 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $29.28 | $3,483,278,372 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $29.28 | $3,483,278,372 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $29.28 | $3,483,278,372 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $30.29 | $3,540,914,086 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $30.29 | $3,540,914,086 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $30.29 | $3,540,914,086 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $30.29 | $3,540,914,086 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $30.48 | $3,558,192,658 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $31.11 | $3,603,388,301 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $31.11 | $3,603,388,301 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $31.11 | $3,603,388,301 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $31.11 | $3,603,388,301 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $31.69 | $3,637,024,015 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $31.71 | $3,639,809,729 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $31.71 | $3,639,809,729 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $30.46 | $3,567,302,586 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $30.46 | $3,567,302,586 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $30.46 | $3,567,302,586 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $30.46 | $3,567,302,586 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $30.46 | $3,567,302,586 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $30.67 | $3,569,945,443 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $30.57 | $3,552,231,158 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $30.57 | $3,552,231,158 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $30.57 | $3,552,231,158 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $30.57 | $3,552,231,158 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $30.57 | $3,552,231,158 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $30.57 | $3,552,231,158 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $30.57 | $3,552,231,158 | 11 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.