Utah Medical Products, Inc. (UTMD)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$71.10+0.55%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UTMD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -6.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers
UTMD — officer change
Dated 2025-11-04
Director — Kevin Timken: Kevin Timken was appointed to the Board of Directors as a new member.
Why it matters: The acquisition may stabilize revenues and create new growth chances for UTMD.
Supportive ifSales from Orion Medical Supplies contribute at least $1.5 million in Q4 2026.
Worry ifSales from Orion do not contribute at least $1.5 million in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it may signal better times for the healthcare sector.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth returns to above 10% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 8% year over year.
Why it matters: Hitting the EBITDA target is key for financial health. It shows how well the company runs.
Supportive ifEBITDA in the next quarters is expected to be between $17M and $18M.
Worry ifEBITDA below $17M shows issues in meeting financial goals.
Why it matters: A smaller drop in revenue means recovery efforts may be working.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue drop is less than 10% from last year. This shows stabilization.
Worry ifQ3 revenue drop is over 12%. This shows ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: If revenue drops more than -10%, it shows sales problems and poor management outlook.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue declines more than 10% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 revenue declines less than 10% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Lower litigation costs mean better control of legal expenses. This helps profit margins.
Supportive ifLitigation costs for 2026 stay below $1.6 million.
Worry ifLitigation costs exceed $1.6 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Lower legal costs show good cost control. This can help make more money.
Supportive ifLitigation expenses in Q3 2026 are less than $1.1 million.
Worry ifLitigation costs in Q3 2026 are over $1.1 million.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows better operations. It also shows good cost management.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA hits $4.5 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA stays under $4 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Selling new products is important. It helps recover lost money from past customers.
Supportive ifNew product sales exceed $500,000 in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNew product sales remain below $200,000 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More sales show recovery from lost customers. This supports management's plan.
Supportive ifNew product sales to biopharma customers exceed $500 in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNew product sales to biopharma customers remain below $500 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Zero OEM sales to PendoTech is a priority. Any updates can impact growth expectations.
Worry ifAnnouncement of zero OEM sales to PendoTech for 2026.
Less concerning ifNo OEM sales to PendoTech were reported. This shows a change in strategy.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$112 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $237 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,577 loss on $10,000 · 15.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.