Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Univest Financial Corp. (UVSP)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$40.30-2.87%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.93 → 3.93 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UVSP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend per share at $0.22 | The company maintains a stable dividend of $0.22 per share. | Broken | dividend per share falls below $0.22 | Dividend per share: $0.23 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.22 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 20260.23 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
UVSP is a regional bank with a multi-year thesis tied to relationship-led balance-sheet growth and sustainable fee income. The thesis state is intact, though recent performance is mixed: fee-income growth is a bright spot, while loan growth and net interest margin show limited progress.
The valuation evidence points to UVSP as cheap versus peers, with an expectations gap of -0.13 and a priced-in tag of justified. Valuation rose by 16.9 points while company momentum fell by 13.6 points, so the recent valuation increase has not been matched by improving momentum. Fragility is rated low, but that does not remove the risk from weak execution.
Near term, two consecutive earnings misses, including the latest quarter, raise the importance of the next call; the stated miss risk is 32%. In Q3, tax-equivalent net interest margin declined to 3.42% from 3.49%, and gross loans fell from the prior quarter, while noninterest income increased year over year. Over the multi-year view, the trajectory depends on whether management can turn its relationship-growth focus into steadier balance-sheet progress while sustaining fee-income growth.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, and rate cuts from the current 3.88% could weigh on UVSP and other financial companies. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as HDB, IBN, and USB could support broader sector momentum. UVSP’s own delivery on loans, margin, and fee income remains the central company-specific swing factor.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis is intact but not firmly confirmed: fee-income progress supports it, while consecutive earnings misses, softer momentum, and mixed loan and margin results remain concerns. The key test is whether execution improves without a guidance cut or added pressure from falling rates. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Univest Financial Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3.63 USD per share. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $3.63 in FY 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $0.78 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3.63 USD per share. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Nov 3, 20260.78 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income growth to at least $27 million in 2026-Q1 | Univest Financial keeps growing net income, reaching $27.1 million in 2026-Q1. | Broken | net income falls below $27 million in any quarter | Net income: $21.568M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=27 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202621,568,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve cash from operating activities above $22 million | A supporting condition in Univest Financial Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=22 million USD. | Intact | cash from operating activities falls below $22 million | Cash from operations: $23.965M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=22 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Jul 28, 202623,965,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.78 → $3.93 · observed estimates
$0.37B → $0.37B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.78 | $365,707,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.87 | $369,741,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.87 | $369,741,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.87 | $369,741,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.87 | $369,741,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.92 | $371,410,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.92 | $371,410,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.92 | $371,410,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.92 | $371,410,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.92 | $371,410,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.92 | $371,410,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.92 | $371,410,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.92 | $371,410,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.92 | $371,410,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.92 | $371,410,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.93 | $370,277,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.92 | $371,410,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.93 | $370,277,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.92 | $371,410,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.92 | $371,410,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.92 | $371,410,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.92 | $371,410,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.92 | $371,410,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.92 | $371,410,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.92 | $371,410,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.93 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.96 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.96 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.96 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.96 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.96 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.96 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.96 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.96 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.96 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.96 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.96 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.96 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.96 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.96 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.96 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.96 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.96 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.96 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.96 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.96 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.96 | $370,277,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.92 | $370,410,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.92 | $370,410,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.92 | $370,410,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.92 | $370,410,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.93 | $370,544,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.93 | $370,544,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.