Univest Financial Corp. (UVSP)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$42.35+0.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · UVSP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
UVSP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On July 22, 2026, Univest Financial Corporation (the “Corporation”), parent company of Univest Bank and Trust Co. (the "Bank"), issued a press release reporting 2026 second quarter earnings. A copy of this press release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is important for funding growth and daily operations.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, cash from operating activities is more than $22.1 million.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, cash from operating activities is less than $22.1 million.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can improve its momentum score. Investors look for signs of growth.
Watch forEarnings report shows a momentum score increase back above 70.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a momentum score below 69.
Why it matters: A change in the dividend shows how much money the company has. It also shows what management cares about.
Watch forDividend per share rises above $0.23. This shows good use of capital.
Also watch forDividend per share falls below $0.23. This shows possible money problems.
Why it matters: A decline could mean worse loan profits and hurt overall earnings.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.33% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin remains above 3.33% in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$86 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $199 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,047 loss on $10,000 · 10.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A rise in nonperforming assets could show credit quality problems and hurt earnings.
Worry ifNonperforming assets increase to over $63 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNonperforming assets fall or stay below $63 million.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a weakening trend in the financial sector. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in net income shows the company is doing well. This helps build trust with shareholders.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 2026 exceeds $27.1 million, showing growth from Q1.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 2026 is below $27.1 million, indicating a decline.
Why it matters: Loan growth affects net interest income and profit. Slower growth may show market issues.
Worry ifLoan growth rate drops below 1.5% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifLoan growth rate exceeds 1.5%, indicating strong demand.
Why it matters: A slowdown in sector growth could impact Univest's performance and outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is below 10%. This shows a slowdown.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is above 15%. This shows continued growth.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good use of money and care for shareholders.
Watch forDividend per share remains at $0.22 for Q2 2026.
Also watch forDividend per share decreases below $0.22 for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A lower dividend could show financial trouble and hurt investor trust.
Worry ifDividend declared is less than $0.23 in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifDividend declared remains at $0.23 or higher in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If earnings miss again, it may worry investors about growth and profits.
Worry ifQ3 earnings report shows net income below $23 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings report shows net income above $23 million.
Why it matters: If noninterest income grows or stays the same, it means better fee-based services.
Supportive ifNoninterest income rose above $18.1 million in Q3.
Worry ifNoninterest income falls below $18.1 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth shows good customer relationships and high market demand.
Supportive ifGross loans increase by more than 1.5% in Q3.
Worry ifGross loans increase by less than 1.5% in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows good financial health and care for investors.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.23 or increases in Q3.
Worry ifDividend per share drops below $0.23 in Q3.