Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Universal Corporation (UVV)
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-11-04
$41.03+3.22%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.95 → 3.95 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UVV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
dividend yield near 6% | The company yields about 6% dividend and has a solid free cash flow yield of 6%. | Under Pressure | dividend yield falls below 5% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a value-oriented, cyclical business with tobacco and Ingredients operations, rather than a clear durable compounder. The multi-year view is on watch: earnings quality is fragile, management execution is volatile, and recent performance has been below its industry cohort.
UVV is rated cheap, but its valuation rose recently and it trades at a premium to peers. The expectations gap is modest, and the evidence describes current pricing as justified rather than reflecting the full combination of weak execution and turbulence.
In the near term, consecutive earnings misses and elevated risk of another miss weigh on confidence. For fiscal 2027, management expects market activity to bring uncommitted tobacco inventories back into range; Ingredients has shown modest growth, while tobacco revenue and operating income declined in fiscal 2026.
The multi-year thesis hinges on tobacco inventory normalization and better operating performance, alongside continued growth in solution-based Ingredients products. Near-term risks include another guidance cut or weaker employment data, while continued earnings strength from major tobacco companies could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, UVV’s cheap valuation and sector tailwind are balanced by fragile earnings quality, recent misses, and uneven tobacco results. The key evidence to watch is whether inventory levels return to range and operating execution improves. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company yields about 6% dividend and has a solid free cash flow yield of 6%. |
| Broken |
| free cash flow yield falls below 5% next year |
Free cash flow yield: 16.49% As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202616.49 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
profit margin supporting stable earnings | A primary condition in Universal Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $4.3 per share. | Broken | EPS falls below $4.3 per share in FY27 | Diluted EPS: $0.50 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $4.3 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20260.5 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
annual revenue growth near 2% | A primary condition in Universal Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=1.5% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 1.5% next year | Revenue growth: -17.62% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1.5% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026-17.621039 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.38 → $3.95 · observed estimates
$2.97B → $2.84B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.38 | $2,967,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.95 | $2,838,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.