Virginia National Bankshares Corp. (VABK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$46.94-0.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VABK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of —
VABK — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-23
Other Events. On July 22, 2026, the Company's Board of Directors declared a cash dividend on the Company's outstanding shares of common stock. The dividend of $0.36 per share will be paid on August 28, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on August 14, 2026.
Why it matters: A big drop in noninterest expense shows good cost control. It shows operational efficiency.
Supportive ifNoninterest expense in Q3 2026 is less than $7.85 million, a 5% decrease from Q3 2025.
Worry ifNoninterest expense in Q3 2026 is over $7.85 million. This shows rising costs.
Why it matters: The dividend payout shows the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a quarterly cash dividend of $0.36 per share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company does not declare a dividend or reduces the payout in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio means better cost control. It also leads to smoother operations.
Supportive ifEfficiency ratio drops below 41.6%. This shows better cost management.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio goes above 41.6%. This suggests costs are rising.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends impact the overall health of the financial sector. A drop below median signals potential weakness.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio means better cost control. This leads to making more money.
Supportive ifEfficiency ratio is better at below 40% in Q3.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio gets worse above 45%. This shows costs are rising.
Why it matters: A steady dividend payout shows financial health. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a dividend of at least $0.36 per share.
Worry ifThe Board cuts the dividend below $0.36 per share.
Why it matters: A slowdown in net income growth could signal weakening performance. Investors watch for consistent earnings growth.
Worry ifQ3 net income growth below 15% year over year compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income growth at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: A steady dividend payout shows the bank's financial health and how it uses money.
Supportive ifThe dividend of $0.36 per share is paid as scheduled.
Worry ifThe dividend is cut or skipped. This shows possible financial problems.
Why it matters: More nonperforming assets may mean higher credit risk. This can affect earnings.
Worry ifNonperforming assets are more than 0.5% of total assets.
Less concerning ifNonperforming assets are under 0.4%. This shows stable credit quality.
Why it matters: The court case outcome could change financial results and how investors feel.
Worry ifThe company gained about $4.7 million from the court case result.
Less concerning ifThe litigation results in a loss or unexpected costs for the company.
Why it matters: Growing net income shows the company is strong and well-run.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 exceeds $9.0 million, showing strong performance.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 2026 is below $5.0 million. This may show problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$81 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $284 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,280 loss on $10,000 · 12.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.