VALE SA (VALE)
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.27-0.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VALE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -11.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
Review the full earnings evidenceWhy it matters: Revenue growth turning positive would signal a shift in the sector's declining phase. This could improve investor sentiment towards VALE.
Supportive ifVALE's revenue growth is positive over three years. This shows a recovery.
Worry ifRevenue growth is negative over three years. This shows the sector is still shrinking.
Why it matters: If VALE does better than Linde or Freeport-McMoRan, it may show better health.
Supportive ifVALE's stock performance exceeds the average of peers like Linde and Freeport-McMoRan.
Worry ifVALE's stock is not doing as well as its peers. This suggests some weaknesses.
Why it matters: Negative GDP data could mean less demand for materials. This may hurt VALE's performance.
Worry ifGDP data shows a contraction in the second estimate for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifGDP data shows growth or stays stable. This means the economy is healthier.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show economic weakness. This could hurt VALE's demand.
Worry ifWeekly unemployment claims are above 300,000.
Less concerning ifWeekly unemployment claims are below 250,000.
Why it matters: Higher CPI could impact demand for materials and affect VALE's pricing power. Investors will react to inflation trends.
Worry ifCPI data shows an increase. This is higher than what most expected.
Less concerning ifCPI data shows a decrease or stays the same. This means inflation is stable.
Why it matters: Positive GDP growth may show a recovery in the materials sector. This could help VALE.
Supportive ifGDP growth for Q2 2026 is reported above 0%.
Worry ifGDP growth for Q2 2026 is reported below 0%.
Why it matters: If revenue growth turns positive, it may signal a sector recovery. This could boost investor confidence in VALE.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth turns positive, showing a shift in the declining trend.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth is still negative. This shows the sector is still shrinking.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims may show economic weakness. This could hurt Vale's business.
Worry ifUnemployment claims rise well above current levels.
Less concerning ifUnemployment claims go down or stay the same.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it shows the materials sector is recovering. This would help VALE.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive, exceeding 0% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains negative, below -1% year over year.
Why it matters: This index affects costs for materials. Changes can impact VALE's pricing power.
Watch forPPI shows a month-over-month increase above 0.5%.
Also watch forPPI shows a month-over-month decrease below -0.5%.
Why it matters: CPI affects inflation expectations. This can influence demand for VALE's products.
Watch forCPI increases month-over-month by more than 0.4%.
Also watch forCPI decreases month-over-month by more than -0.4%.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can impact VALE's cost of capital and investment plans.
Watch forFOMC raises rates by 25 basis points.
Also watch forFOMC keeps rates unchanged or lowers them.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$148 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $318 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,351 loss on $10,000 · 23.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.