Veracyte, Inc. (VCYT)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
$42.53-4.79%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VCYT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VCYT — officer change
Dated 2026-06-11
The excerpt is incomplete and does not provide sufficient details to determine the nature of the event.
Why it matters: Stable growth in these main products shows Veracyte's strong base. It means the company can keep its market position.
Watch forDecipher and Afirma growth rates remain above 15% in the next quarter.
Also watch forGrowth rates for Decipher and Afirma drop below 15% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A fall in gross margin may mean higher costs or pricing issues hurting profits.
Worry ifQ2 gross margin falls below 70%.
Less concerning ifGross margin remains above 70%.
Why it matters: The success of these launches will indicate if Veracyte can expand its market share. Early results are crucial.
Watch forProsigna LDT and TrueMRD will bring in a lot of money in the next report.
Also watch forMinimal or no revenue contribution from Prosigna LDT and TrueMRD in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Sustaining revenue growth above 14% shows strong demand for Veracyte's tests. It confirms management's growth strategy is working.
Supportive ifIn Q3, total revenue grew by over 14% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue growth falls below 14% year-over-year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$203 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $442 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,923 loss on $10,000 · 39.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If operating income grows over 50%, it shows good cost management. This may help how investors feel.
Supportive ifOperating income reported to grow above 50% in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income growth was less than 50% in Q2.
Why it matters: A decline could show problems in operations. This may impact future investments.
Worry ifCash from operations was less than $30 million.
Less concerning ifCash from operations reported at or above $30 million.
Why it matters: Slow growth in Decipher could mean trouble. It may hurt overall revenue.
Worry ifDecipher revenue growth reported below 30% year over year.
Less concerning ifDecipher revenue growth reported at or above 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Medicare coverage is important for TrueMRD's success. Good news can increase use and sales.
Supportive ifMedicare coverage for TrueMRD is now expanded beyond the first approval.
Worry ifNo news or bad news about Medicare coverage for TrueMRD.
Why it matters: This growth rate is critical to maintain the company's revenue trajectory. A drop signals potential issues with new product adoption.
Worry ifQ3 testing revenue growth lands at 17% or higher year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 testing revenue growth falls below 17% year over year.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance would show strong demand for Veracyte's tests and products.
Supportive ifManagement raises 2026 revenue guidance to more than $596 million.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers 2026 revenue guidance to less than $590 million.
Why it matters: Keeping or improving EBITDA margin shows good cost control and profit.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is above 29% in the next quarter.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is below 26% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps support growth and keeps finances stable.
Supportive ifCash from operations reported above $50 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash from operations reported below $40 million in Q3.
Why it matters: These new products may drive significant growth in the cancer diagnostics market.
Watch forRevenue from Prosigna LDT and TrueMRD exceeds $20 million in the next quarter.
Also watch forRevenue from Prosigna LDT and TrueMRD is less than $5 million in the next quarter.