Velocity Financial, Inc. (VEL)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$17.45+4.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VEL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -49.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VEL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026 we issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information provided in Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that secti…
Why it matters: Nonperforming loans fell to 9.6% from 10.3% a year earlier. A rise above 10% would reverse that progress.
Worry ifA quarterly report shows nonperforming loans above 10% of total loans.
Less concerning ifA quarterly report keeps nonperforming loans at or below 9.6% of total loans.
Why it matters: Velocity said the Toorak deal would add to GAAP earnings in 2027. The first results after closing will test that claim.
Supportive ifA 2027 earnings report shows Toorak adding to GAAP earnings, with fee income from loan sales or servicing.
Worry ifA 2027 earnings report says Toorak cut GAAP earnings, or shows no fee income from its loan sales or servicing.
Why it matters: Core EPS rose from $0.68 in Q1 to $0.71 in Q2. A further rise would extend that trend.
Supportive ifThe next earnings report shows core diluted EPS above $0.71.
Worry ifThe next earnings report shows core diluted EPS at or below $0.68.
Why it matters: Q2 production fell 7.3% from a year earlier, though unit count rose. A recovery would show stronger loan volume.
Supportive ifA quarterly report shows loan production above $725 million, the Q2 2025 level.
Worry ifA quarterly report shows loan production below $640 million, the Q1 2026 level.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$92 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $272 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,011 loss on $10,000 · 30.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.