Velo3D Inc (VELO)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.64-4.48%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VELO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -69.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 50.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 305 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 119.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers
VELO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-15
by reference. The preliminary financial information described in the press release is preliminary and unaudited, reflects management's current estimates based on information available as of the date of the press release, and is subject to change. The Company has not completed its closing procedures for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, and its independent registered public accounting firm has not audited, reviewed or performed any procedures with respect to this preliminary information an…
Why it matters: Management set a 2026 revenue goal of $60 million to $70 million in May. The latest priority input reports a higher range of $65 million to $75 million.
Supportive ifFinal 2026 revenue is at least $65 million, in line with the latest range in the priority input.
Worry ifFinal 2026 revenue is below $60 million, under the May goal range.
Why it matters: Velo3D reported negative adjusted EBITDA in Q1. Positive EBITDA in the second half is a clear test of its cost and growth plans.
Supportive ifReported EBITDA is above zero for the second half of 2026.
Worry ifReported EBITDA is zero or below for the second half of 2026.
Why it matters: Q1 gross margin was 17.2%. A margin above 30% would meet the stated second-half goal.
Supportive ifReported gross margin is above 30% in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifReported gross margin is 30% or lower in the second half of 2026.
Why it matters: Velo3D gave a preliminary range of $19.5 million to $20.5 million. A lower final result would weaken the growth signal.
Worry ifFinal Q3 revenue is below $19.5 million.
Less concerning ifFinal Q3 revenue is at least $19.5 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$489 on $10,000 · ±4.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,569 loss on $10,000 · 15.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,156 loss on $10,000 · 81.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.