VF Corporation (VFC)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.45+2.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VFC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -19.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
VFC — CFO transition
Dated 2026-07-29
Chief Financial Officer — Abhishek Dalmia: Mr. Dalmia was promoted to CFO while continuing his role as COO.
Why it matters: Hitting this margin shows good cost control and makes more money.
Supportive ifThe adjusted operating margin is around 8% for FY'27.
Worry ifThe adjusted operating margin is under 7% for FY'27.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It shows VF values its shareholders.
Watch forQuarterly dividend of $0.09 per share declared for Q3 2026.
Also watch forDividend cut or not declared for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows good cost management. It also supports growth plans.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income is up from Q1's adjusted income of ($95M).
Worry ifQ2 operating income is down from Q1's adjusted income of ($95M).
Why it matters: Reducing net debt would show VF's commitment to improving its balance sheet.
Supportive ifNet debt reported at $4.3B or lower by the end of FY'27.
Worry ifNet debt reported above $4.5B by the end of FY'27.
Why it matters: This growth would confirm VF's return to a positive revenue trend after previous declines.
Supportive ifQ1'27 revenue growth reported at +2% or better compared to last year.
Worry ifQ1'27 revenue growth reported below +1% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A lower leverage ratio means better financial health. It shows VF is handling debt well.
Supportive ifLeverage ratio reported between 2.6x and 2.9x at FYE'27.
Worry ifLeverage ratio reported above 3.0x at FYE'27.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better cost control and growth in main brands. This helps VF's margin goals.
Supportive ifOperating income exceeds $62M in Q4'26.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $54M in Q4'26.
Why it matters: This will show if VF can sustain growth after returning to it in FY'26. A strong performance supports the growth narrative.
Supportive ifQ1'27 revenue growth ex Dickies of +2% or better year over year.
Worry ifQ1'27 revenue growth ex Dickies worse than flat year over year.
Why it matters: Changes to the FY'27 revenue guidance affect growth expectations. The company raised guidance to +2% or better. This shows confidence in recovery.
Supportive ifManagement confirms FY'27 revenue growth of +2% or better in the upcoming earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers FY'27 revenue guidance to less than +1%.
Why it matters: Free cash flow trends show the company's ability to generate cash after expenses. The guidance is for flat to up free cash flow versus last year.
Supportive ifQ2 free cash flow reported flat or up compared to last year’s $405M.
Worry ifQ2 free cash flow reported down compared to last year’s $405M.
Why it matters: Changes in net debt show financial health. The company aims to reduce its leverage ratio to 2.5x by FY'28.
Supportive ifNet debt is down a lot, showing progress in reducing debt.
Worry ifNet debt is the same or going up.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$175 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $451 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,926 loss on $10,000 · 39.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.