Venture Global Inc (VG)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.42-0.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VG — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-02
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On September 2, 2026, Venture Global LNG, Inc. (“VGLNG”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Venture Global, Inc. (the “Company”), entered into a 364-day revolving credit agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with the lenders party thereto (the “Lenders”), and Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent. The Credit Agreement provides for a senior secured revolving credit facility (the “Facility”) under which VGLNG may borrow up to $3,000,000,000. The Cred…
Why it matters: Changes in LNG prices can greatly impact profits and financial outlook.
Worry ifLNG prices stay stable or go up, which helps EBITDA guidance.
Less concerning ifLNG prices drop a lot, causing a cut in EBITDA guidance.
Why it matters: If this number is exceeded, it shows strong growth in LNG sales.
Supportive ifQ2 LNG cargo exports reported above 150 cargos.
Worry ifQ2 LNG cargo exports reported below 140 cargos.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows good cost management and revenue generation.
Supportive ifQ2 net income growth reported above 20% YoY.
Worry ifQ2 net income growth reported below 15% YoY.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows the company is working efficiently. This is important for making money in the long run.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up to over $1.151 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income falls or stays under $1.151 billion in Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$256 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $809 loss on $10,000 · 8.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,997 loss on $10,000 · 60.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company values its shareholders. Any change might mean financial trouble.
Watch forDividend per share remains at $0.02 for the next quarter.
Also watch forDividend per share is cut below $0.02 in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Confirming the operations date shows that the project is ready and working.
Supportive ifManagement says Plaquemines Project Phase 1 will start in Q4 2026 as planned.
Worry ifA delay in confirming the operations date past Q4 2026 is possible.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows strong cash flow and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement declares a dividend of $0.04 or more for Q4 2026.
Worry ifDividend per share is cut below $0.04.
Why it matters: The success of the debt issuance affects liquidity and future financing. It signals financial health.
Supportive ifThe $2.25 billion senior secured notes offering ends well.
Worry ifThe offering fails to close or raises less than $2.25 billion.
Why it matters: Changes in fee guidance can greatly affect revenue and EBITDA.
Watch forManagement raises the fixed liquefaction fee guidance. It is now above $10.50/MMBtu.
Also watch forManagement lowers the fixed liquefaction fee guidance. It is now below $9.50/MMBtu.
Why it matters: The recent debt issuance could affect the company's financial stability. Investors will want to see how it impacts operations.
Watch forThe company shows better financial results after taking on debt.
Also watch forThe company reports worse financial metrics or more debt.
Why it matters: A change in the dividend per share could indicate shifts in capital allocation strategy. Stability in dividends is a sign of financial health.
Watch forDividend per share increases above $0.02.
Also watch forDividend per share decreases below $0.02.
Why it matters: An increase in cargo range guidance would show strong growth potential for the company. This reflects management's focus on expanding operations.
Supportive ifManagement says cargo range guidance will rise above 523 for 2026.
Worry ifCargo range guidance remains at or below 494 for 2026.
Why it matters: More cargo exports show strong demand and good operations. This helps revenue and market position.
Supportive ifTotal LNG cargo exports reported exceed 150 cargos for 2026.
Worry ifTotal LNG cargo exports reported fall below 140 cargos for 2026.