Valhi, Inc. (VHI)
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.54-4.37%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VHI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -76.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 72.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers
VHI — dividend update
Dated 2026-11-05
Regulation FD Disclosure The registrant hereby furnishes the information set forth in its press release entitled “Valhi Declares Quarterly Dividend ” that the registrant also issued on November 5, 2026, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and incorporated herein by reference. The press release the registrant furnishes as Exhibit 99.2 to this current report is not “filed” for purposes of section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to t…
Why it matters: Currency changes cut Chemicals operating income by $12 million in Q2. A similar hit could offset gains from prices, sales, and lower costs.
Worry ifThe Nov. 5 results show that currency changes cut Chemicals operating income by $12 million or more in Q3.
Less concerning ifCurrency changes do not lower Q3 Chemicals operating income overall. Or they raise income.
Why it matters: TiO2 prices rose 4% in the first half of 2026. Higher prices could help offset currency costs and weaker prices from early 2026.
Supportive ifThe Nov. 5 results report that average TiO2 selling prices rose again in Q3 from the Q2 level.
Worry ifAverage TiO2 selling prices fall in Q3 from the Q2 level, or the company reports no further price gains.
Why it matters: Valhi declared a $0.08 per-share dividend in August. Keeping that payment would support the stated focus on dividends.
Supportive ifThe Nov. 5 report declares a quarterly dividend of at least $0.08 per share.
Worry ifThe Nov. 5 report cuts the dividend below $0.08 per share or declares no dividend.
Why it matters: The supplied priority data shows operating cash flow fell to negative $46.1 million in Q1. A positive Q3 result would ease concern about cash flow swings.
Supportive ifThe Nov. 5 results report positive cash from operating activities for Q3.
Worry ifThe Nov. 5 results report negative cash from operating activities for Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $430 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,525 loss on $10,000 · 25.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Chemicals operating income reached $40.4 million in Q2, up from $10.3 million a year earlier. Another strong quarter would show that cost cuts and higher sales still help.
Supportive ifIn the Nov. 5 results, Chemicals operating income is at least $40 million, with lower costs or higher sales helping.
Worry ifChemicals operating income falls below $10.3 million. Or higher costs wipe out gains from sales.