Vir Biotechnology, Inc. (VIR)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.39-0.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VIR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -54.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -65.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VIR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, Vir Biotechnology, Inc. (the Company) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including the attached Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934,…
Why it matters: New data could indicate the effectiveness of VIR-5500 in treating prostate cancer. This is key for the collaboration with Astellas.
Watch forNew data shows that higher doses help fight metastatic prostate cancer.
Also watch forThe data shows no clear signs of fighting tumors. There are also no safety issues.
Why it matters: A smooth transition could keep operations stable. Issues could raise doubts about management.
Watch forA new CFO is appointed. They have experience and a clear plan for financial management.
Also watch forCFO transition may cause problems or delays in financial reports.
Why it matters: Changes in guidance could mean shifts in strategy or financial health. This can affect investor confidence.
Watch forManagement says cash runway lasts into the second half of 2028 without any changes.
Also watch forManagement now says cash runway will last only until 2027.
Why it matters: Data from these cohorts will indicate how well VIR-5500 works in prostate cancer. This could impact future trials.
Supportive ifData from one group shows strong effects against tumors.
Worry ifData from all groups shows no strong effects against tumors.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a shift in the health care sector's growth phase.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the sector median growth rate.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above the sector median growth rate.
Why it matters: This data is key to understanding how well the treatment works for chronic hepatitis delta. Good results could help with regulatory submissions.
Supportive ifTopline data shows a big gain in viral suppression versus the control group.
Worry ifTopline data shows no big improvement or worse results compared to the control group.
Why it matters: Good results could support the partnership with Astellas and help develop the drug for prostate cancer.
Supportive ifThe good Phase 1 results show that the treatment works better with higher doses.
Worry ifAnnouncement of adverse results or safety concerns from the Phase 1 trial.
Why it matters: A larger net loss could signal deeper financial issues and impact cash runway plans.
Worry ifNet loss for Q2 2026 reported above $130 million.
Less concerning ifNet loss for Q2 2026 reported below $130 million.
Why it matters: These trials will give more information about how well the combination therapy works. This could change treatment options.
Supportive ifECLIPSE 2 and ECLIPSE 3 data show at least 70% of participants have no HDV RNA.
Worry ifECLIPSE 2 and ECLIPSE 3 data show less than 40% of participants have no HDV RNA.
Why it matters: This data may show how well the treatment works for chronic hepatitis delta.
Supportive ifWeek 96 data shows that the treatment works well for chronic hepatitis delta patients.
Worry ifPresentation shows poor results or no real change in patient health.
Why it matters: Finishing enrollment is key to understanding how well the new treatment works.
Supportive ifEnrollment in the ECLIPSE 2 trial is done, so data can be analyzed.
Worry ifEnrollment is late or not finished, which affects the trial schedule.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can change company plans. They can also affect how investors feel.
Watch forNew director brings a strong background and positive changes to governance.
Also watch forA transition can cause instability. It may also lead to bad changes in management.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can keep growing after the recent earnings beat.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings were better than expected. This shows that revenue is still growing.
Worry ifQ2 earnings were lower than expected. This suggests there may be revenue problems.
Why it matters: Good response data may show promise for more HER2-targeted therapies.
Supportive ifWe expect response data from the Phase 1 dose-escalation of VIR-5818 in late 2026.
Worry ifNo strong response data was reported, or results were negative.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can extend its cash runway into 2028.
Watch forEarnings report shows a cash balance that extends runway into 2028.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows a cash balance that means less time to operate.
Why it matters: The data will show how well the combination treatment works for chronic hepatitis delta. Good results could help the treatment's market position.
Supportive ifWeek 96 data shows at least 88% of participants had undetectable HDV RNA.
Worry ifData shows less than 70% of participants had undetectable HDV RNA.
Why it matters: This data shows how well the combination therapy works for chronic hepatitis delta. Good results could increase trust in the treatment.
Supportive ifData from the Phase 3 ECLIPSE 1 trial shows over 80% of participants had no HDV RNA.
Worry ifData shows under 50% of participants had no HDV RNA.
Why it matters: New data will indicate how well VIR-5500 works in treating metastatic prostate cancer. This could impact future trials.
Supportive ifData shows a significant reduction in tumor size in at least 50% of patients treated with VIR-5500.
Worry ifData shows no major change in tumor size for treated patients.
Why it matters: Finishing these groups will help develop a new treatment for prostate cancer. This is important for the company.
Supportive ifAll planned patients in the Phase 1 dose-expansion cohorts for VIR-5500 are dosed by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNot all planned patients are dosed by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping a strong cash position is key for funding trials and operations. This affects the company's stability.
Supportive ifCash, cash equivalents, and investments are over $1 billion. This funds operations into the second half of 2028.
Worry ifCash, cash equivalents, and investments drop below $800 million. This raises worries about funding.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$206 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $567 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,561 loss on $10,000 · 25.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.