Virco Mfg. Corp. (VIRC)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.21+1.14%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VIRC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 45.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
VIRC — dividend update
Dated 2026-09-04
Regulation FD Disclosure. On September 3, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a cash dividend for the Company’s third fiscal quarter of $0.025 on each outstanding share of common stock. The dividend is payable on October 9, 2026 to stockholders of record of the common stock as of the close of business on September 18, 2026. While the Company currently intends to pay future dividends on a quarterly basis, following review and approval by the Board of Directors, the declaration and…
Why it matters: New school budgets brought a slight rise in demand, but management said the late-year lift may not change full-year results much.
Watch forThe Dec. 14 report shows quarterly sales above $87.5 million, the 2026-Q2 level.
Also watch forThe Dec. 14 report shows quarterly sales below $87.5 million.
Why it matters: Virco is spending on new products and factory systems to reach nearby markets. Named wins would show those efforts are finding customers.
Supportive ifVirco names a new customer or order outside the school market and reports sales from it.
Worry ifThe next report gives no named customer or sales from non-school markets, or says plans were delayed.
Why it matters: Margin fell to 41.4% in the first quarter, then reached 40.0% in the second. A further drop could weigh on profit.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 40.0% in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifGross margin is 40.0% or higher in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: This measure was 2.1% below last year at July 31. A smaller gap would support a demand recovery; a wider gap would show continued weakness.
Watch forAt the Dec. 14 report, shipments plus backlog is at or above the year-ago level.
Also watch forAt the Dec. 14 report, shipments plus backlog is more than 2.1% below the year-ago level.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$100 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $308 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,629 loss on $10,000 · 26.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.