Virco Mfg. Corp. (VIRC)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.52+7.77%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VIRC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VIRC — dividend update
Dated 2026-09-04
Regulation FD Disclosure. On September 3, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a cash dividend for the Company’s third fiscal quarter of $0.025 on each outstanding share of common stock. The dividend is payable on October 9, 2026 to stockholders of record of the common stock as of the close of business on September 18, 2026. While the Company currently intends to pay future dividends on a quarterly basis, following review and approval by the Board of Directors, the declaration and…
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company pays the declared dividend of $0.025 per share on July 10, 2026.
Worry ifThe company stops or cuts the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows recovery from the drop in demand for school furniture.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue is over $30.7 million. This shows a good trend in sales.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is under $30.7 million. This shows ongoing weakness in demand.
Why it matters: More incoming orders show a recovery in demand for school furniture. This may lead to higher revenue.
Supportive ifIncoming order rates rise by low double digits from last year.
Worry ifIncoming order rates remain flat or decline compared to the previous year.
Why it matters: Another earnings miss would show ongoing money problems. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifThe company announces another earnings miss for Q2.
Less concerning ifThe company reports earnings that meet or go above expectations.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$100 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $356 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,762 loss on $10,000 · 37.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth means the company is doing well in a tough market. This helps its growth plan.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported as positive compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported as negative compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: A rise in gross margin shows better cost control and pricing power.
Supportive ifGross margin rises above 41.4%. This shows a recovery in making money.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 41.4%. This shows worsening financial health.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows a promise to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend payment is made as scheduled on July 10, 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is canceled or delayed. This shows financial trouble.
Why it matters: Regaining revenue levels from Q3 2026 is crucial for long-term growth. It indicates market recovery.
Supportive ifRevenue exceeds $47.636 million, the level from Q3 2026.
Worry ifRevenue remains below $30.692 million from Q1 2027.
Why it matters: If revenue drops more, it shows ongoing problems in the school furniture market.
Worry ifQ3 revenue down year over year worse than -6.1%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows better cost management. It also means more revenue.
Supportive ifOperating income goes from -$3.66 million in Q1 to a smaller loss in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income gets worse or stays negative. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Stable gross margins show better cost management. This may lead to higher overall profits.
Supportive ifGross margin reported above 41.4% in the next earnings report.
Worry ifGross margin declines further below 41.4% in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: A rise in this metric means stronger future sales and better planning.
Supportive if'Shipments plus Backlog' rises from $103.7 million. This shows stronger demand.
Worry if'Shipments plus Backlog' falls from $103.7 million. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is controlling costs well. This is important for long-term profits.
Supportive ifOperating income is better than the Q1 2026 results.
Worry ifOperating income is worse than the Q1 2026 results.