Valmont Industries (VMI)
NYSEIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$481.46+1.33%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VMI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
VMI — Chair transition
Dated 2026-07-28
Board Chair — Mogens C. Bay: Mogens C. Bay is retiring from the Board and will be succeeded by Catherine J. Paglia.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows good cost control and pricing.
Supportive ifOperating income in Q2 is over $155.6 million, up from Q1.
Worry ifOperating income in Q2 falls below $155.6 million.
Why it matters: Sales growth is key to achieving the updated $4.3 to $4.45 billion target. It reflects demand strength.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 net sales exceed $1.1 billion.
Worry ifQ3 2026 net sales fall below $1.1 billion.
Why it matters: The new CFO's plans may change how finances are managed. This could impact investor trust.
Watch forNew CFO John Schwietz outlines a clear financial strategy in the upcoming earnings call.
Also watch forLack of clarity or changes in financial strategy during the earnings call.
Why it matters: The industrials sector is slowing. Signs of growth could indicate a turnaround for Valmont.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to over 10% compared to last year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth continues to decline or stays below 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$109 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $312 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,170 loss on $10,000 · 21.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in this segment is key for overall sales and reflects market demand. It shows how well Valmont is leveraging its capacity investments.
Supportive ifNorth America Utility segment sales grow year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifNorth America Utility sales drop year over year or grow less than 5%.
Why it matters: Updates to EPS guidance show management's confidence in future earnings. It shows how well the company is doing its job.
Supportive ifManagement raises 2026 diluted EPS guidance to more than $22.25.
Worry ifManagement lowers 2026 diluted EPS guidance to less than $22.25.
Why it matters: Sales trends in Agriculture reflect market conditions and pricing discipline. This will show how well Valmont is managing challenges in this segment.
Worry ifAgriculture sales stay steady or grow year over year.
Less concerning ifAgriculture segment sales decline year over year by more than 10%.
Why it matters: The operating income margin shows how well costs are managed. A rise means better profits.
Supportive ifOperating income margin is above 14.8% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating income margin falls below 14.8% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher capital expenditures show a strong commitment to growth. It also shows plans for expansion.
Supportive ifCapital spending for 2026 is more than $200 million.
Worry ifCapital spending for 2026 is $200 million or less.
Why it matters: Steel costs affect margins. Changes can impact profits and pricing plans.
Worry ifSteel costs rise much higher than current futures market expectations.
Less concerning ifSteel costs stabilize or decline, improving margin outlook.
Why it matters: Slower growth may show weak demand or problems. This could affect overall financial health.
Worry ifNet sales growth for Q3 is below 6% year over year.
Less concerning ifNet sales growth for Q3 exceeds 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong growth in Infrastructure sales boosts Valmont's total revenue and profit outlook.
Supportive ifInfrastructure segment sales grow more than 5% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifInfrastructure segment sales growth falls below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: If Agriculture sales keep falling, it shows market problems. This can hurt growth and profits.
Worry ifAgriculture segment sales decline more than 15% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifAgriculture segment sales decline less than 15% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: A higher EPS shows better margins and good pricing. This can boost investor trust.
Supportive ifQ3 diluted EPS exceeds $6.14.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS falls below $6.14.