Viper Energy (VNOM)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
$44.39-1.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VNOM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 29.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 63.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VNOM — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-02
Other Events. On July 2, 2026, Viper Energy, Inc. filed a prospectus supplement to its automatic shelf registration statement on Form S-3 (Registration No. 333-289863) with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This Current Report on Form 8-K is being filed solely for the purpose of filing the opinion of Latham & Watkins LLP relating to the legality of the issuance and sale of the securities set forth in the prospectus supplement, which opinion is attached as Exhibit 5.1 hereto.
Why it matters: Future dividends show the company is healthy. They also show a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividends are maintained or increased from the current $0.68 per share.
Worry ifDividends are cut or not declared after Q2 2026 earnings.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is vital for dividend payments and operational investments. It reflects financial health.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report shows cash flow from operations is well over $50 million.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows cash flow from operations below $30 million.
Why it matters: The higher base dividend shows management wants to return money to shareholders. This could help investor feelings.
Supportive ifThe base dividend is maintained at $2.00 per Class A share annually, signaling strong cash flow.
Worry ifThe dividend is cut or not kept. This shows possible cash flow problems.
Why it matters: This acquisition may improve Viper's assets and production. It could affect future earnings.
Supportive ifThe deal for mineral and royalty interests from Diamondback will close as planned in late Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition faces delays or fails to close by late Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the energy sector. This would impact Viper's performance and outlook.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is above 8% year-over-year. This shows a recovery.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is below 6% year-over-year. This shows ongoing weakness.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show Viper's confidence in its finances and spending plans.
Supportive ifViper announces more share buybacks in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo share repurchases occur in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Stable or rising dividends show strong cash flow. It shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividends declared at $0.68 per share or higher.
Worry ifDividends are below $0.68 per share. This shows cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks can show confidence in cash flow and financial health.
Watch forThey announced more share buybacks beyond the current $1.14 billion limit.
Also watch forNo new share buybacks were announced. This may show cash flow concerns.
Why it matters: Closing this deal will add production and royalty interests. This will help growth.
Supportive ifThe acquisition closes in early Q3 2026 as planned, adding 1,000 bo/d production.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed beyond Q3 2026 or fails to close.
Why it matters: Changes in net debt will show how the Riverbend Acquisition affects finances.
Worry ifNet debt stays the same or goes down from about $1.8 billion after the deal.
Less concerning ifNet debt goes up a lot past $1.8 billion after the deal closes.
Why it matters: The earnings results will show how Viper Energy is performing in a tough sector. It will also reveal if the dividend strategy is sustainable.
Watch forEarnings per share (EPS) is over $0.30. This shows strong operational performance.
Also watch forEPS is below $0.15. This shows big operational challenges.
Why it matters: More production shows Viper's growth plan and strong operations. This helps investor trust.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 average daily production guidance exceeds 68,500 bo/d.
Worry ifQ3 2026 average daily production guidance falls below 67,500 bo/d.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition would show Viper's commitment to growth through M&A. It could boost production and cash flow.
Supportive ifThe acquisition of 933 net royalty acres closes as planned in late Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition is late or called off.
Why it matters: An increase shows good cash flow management. It also shows a promise to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board announces an increase in the base dividend above $2.00 per share.
Worry ifThe Board maintains the base dividend at $2.00 per share or cuts it.
Why it matters: Increased repurchases would indicate strong cash flow and confidence in the stock's value.
Supportive ifShare repurchases in Q3 2026 exceed $100 million.
Worry ifShare repurchases in Q3 2026 fall below $50 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$112 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $292 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,055 loss on $10,000 · 20.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.