Viper Energy (VNOM)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-05
$39.70-3.31%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VNOM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 28.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VNOM — capital allocation — Unregistered Sales of Equity
Dated 2026-09-08
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. As previously disclosed, on August 3, 2026, Viper Energy, Inc. (the “Company”), as parent, and Viper Energy Partners LP, an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, as buyer, entered into a definitive purchase agreement to acquire certain mineral and royalty interests from Diamondback Energy, Inc. and related subsidiaries (the “2026 Drop Down”). On September 1, 2026, the Company completed the 2026 Drop Down, pursuant to which the Company acquir…
Why it matters: The 32% increase moves more cash to a steady dividend. Viper said the base payout is protected down to about $30 WTI.
Supportive ifViper declares and pays a $0.50 per-share base dividend for Q3, equal to $2.00 per share annually.
Worry ifViper cuts the Q3 base dividend below $0.50 per share or does not declare it.
Why it matters: The sector signal says energy revenue is shrinking, though recent data hints that trend may change. Positive growth would add support to Viper's growth story.
Supportive ifThe sector's three-year revenue growth turns positive in the next sector update.
Worry ifThe sector's three-year revenue growth stays at or below zero in the next available sector update.
Why it matters: Viper set Q3 oil output guidance at 67,500 to 68,500 barrels per day. Output near the top would support its growth plan.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 average oil output is at or above 68,000 barrels per day, within the 67,500 to 68,500 range.
Worry ifQ3 2026 average oil output is below 67,500 barrels per day.
Why it matters: The deal adds royalty interests from Diamondback. Check whether the added output offsets the new units issued.
Watch forA company report shows oil output per share rises after the Sept. 1 deal closes.
Also watch forA company report shows oil output per share falls after the Sept. 1 deal closes.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$113 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $313 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,208 loss on $10,000 · 22.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.