Vontier (VNT)
NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$33.30+0.85%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VNT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -31.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers
VNT — earnings in line
Dated 2026-05-07
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Active share buybacks show management's confidence in the company. It shows a commitment to return money.
Supportive ifShare repurchases in Q3 2026 total at least $100 million.
Worry ifShare repurchases in Q3 2026 fall below $50 million.
Why it matters: Dividends show the company is strong. They also show care for shareholders.
Watch forDividend payment news on or after July 30.
Also watch forNo dividend payment announced on or after July 30.
Why it matters: The sale could change total sales and operating margins a lot.
Worry ifTotal sales in 2026 are over $3,040 million, even with the sale.
Less concerning ifTotal sales in 2026 fall below $2,990 million due to the divestiture impact.
Why it matters: This would signal that Vontier is struggling to increase sales, which is a key priority.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$114 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $259 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,603 loss on $10,000 · 36.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher sales than expected would show strong demand and improve outlook for the rest of the year.
Supportive ifThird quarter sales exceed the midpoint of previous guidance.
Worry ifSales fall below the midpoint of previous guidance.
Why it matters: Operating income is important for making money. Growth below 3% shows cost issues.
Worry ifOperating income growth is below 3% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth is above 3% compared to last year.
Why it matters: The sale affects revenue and profit margins. It shows how Vontier manages its assets.
Watch forThe Teletrac Navman sale is complete. The sale price is $220 million.
Also watch forThere is a delay in the sale. The sale price is much lower than $220 million.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks show that management believes in the company. They see value and a good future.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of more share buybacks beyond the $1.0 billion limit.
Worry ifNo new share repurchase announcements or a slowdown in buybacks.
Why it matters: The sector's growth trajectory affects Vontier's performance. A drop below median signals broader issues.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: This shows if Vontier is improving its cost structure and profitability. It affects overall financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted profit margin is 21.0% or higher.
Worry ifAdjusted profit margin is below 20.0%.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends shows care for shareholders. A steady payment shows good financial health.
Supportive ifDividend payment remains at $0.025 per share in the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend payment is cut or reduced from $0.025 per share.
Why it matters: Strong demand in Convenience Retail is crucial for Vontier's growth. Declining core sales could indicate market challenges.
Watch forCore sales growth in Convenience Retail was over 3% compared to last year.
Also watch forCore sales growth in Convenience Retail was under 1% compared to last year.
Why it matters: This guidance shows that management believes earnings will grow. It shows the company can adapt to market changes.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted net EPS for Q3 2026 lands at or above $0.86.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted net EPS for Q3 2026 falls below $0.82.
Why it matters: Core sales growth indicates demand strength in key markets. It shows if the company can overcome recent declines.
Supportive ifCore sales growth in Q3 exceeds 5% year-over-year.
Worry ifCore sales growth in Q3 is below 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Margin expansion means lower costs and better efficiency. This leads to higher profits.
Supportive ifOperating profit margin expands by more than 110 basis points in Q3.
Worry ifOperating profit margin does not expand or contracts in Q3.