Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM)
NASDAQIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
NASDAQIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
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Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Industrials is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Achieve free cash flow near $160 million in 2026: Free cash flow guidance: $105M to $115M.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 14% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 89% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskVerra Mobility's shrinking revenue base undermines its valuation. Revenue fell 1% year over year in the latest quarter. The company beat earnings estimates by 44% in Q3 2026. It trades at 2.2 times earnings versus a 22 times peer median. The market expects less growth than our model forecasts. Free cash flow guidance of $105M to $115M misses the $160M target. This gap breaks the primary pillar of the investment case. Peer multiples imply a price about 75% above where it trades. The thesis has broken. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-11-04. VRRM is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 7 analysts currently covering VRRM (as of Nov 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRRM Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-11-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Data Processing & Outsourced Services — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put VRRM next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Renew and manage key Commercial Services customer contracts
Downgrade highlights contract renewal risks, challenging growth thesis.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-11-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.

Threatens: Implement transformation initiative for long-term growth
Profit loss raises concerns about long-term growth sustainability.

Fair value cut indicates potential headwinds for growth.

Threatens: Renew and manage key commercial contracts
Contract reset impacts revenue stability and growth potential.

CEO change may impact strategic direction and execution.
Downgrade due to Avis contract loss impacts revenue guidance.