Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM)
NASDAQIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.48-6.77%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.95 → 0.78 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VRRM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Deliver adjusted EBITDA near $415 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Verra Mobility Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is ~$415M. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $405M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented business with robust earnings quality, but its recent financial performance is neutral and its overall risk is high. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: Government Solutions is delivering growth, while the broader growth plan and Commercial Services results remain mixed.
VRRM is cheap versus peers, but the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting the valuation does not clearly show a large gap between expectations and the current setup. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility; the evidence does not show that the valuation alone resolves the execution concerns.
Near term, the recent earnings beat is positive, but CEO and CFO transitions add uncertainty, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. In 2026-Q3, Government Solutions revenue grew 12% year over year and management reported record bookings, while total revenue fell 1% and Commercial Services revenue fell 14%; full-year revenue guidance was reduced in Q2 and reaffirmed in Q3.
A key downside scenario is another guidance cut after the recent raise, which could further weaken confidence in management execution. The other swing factor is whether Government Solutions growth can offset pressure in Commercial Services, including less favorable contract terms and the Avis agreement ending. Sector results from BR, LDOS, and CACI may also signal whether the Industrials backdrop improves or weakens.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on continued Government Solutions growth and better evidence that the broader business can manage Commercial Services pressure and leadership transitions. The valuation is cheap versus peers, but the business setup remains mixed and high risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit goals are $415M EBITDA and $160M free cash flow. |
| Broken |
| Free cash flow falls below $150M in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $89.412M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$160M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 202689,412,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize leadership and execute turnaround plan | A supporting condition in Verra Mobility Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Stable leadership and progress on turnaround by end 2026. | Under Pressure | Ongoing leadership turmoil or failed turnaround execution | Qualitative: CEO change + CFO resignation (interim) vs Stable leadership CEO change and CFO resignation to interim consultant reported in Oct 2026, alongside JPMorgan downgrade on contract risks. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 2026 revenue near $1.03 billion | A primary condition in Verra Mobility Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.03B. | Broken | Revenue falls below $1.02B in FY26 | Revenue: $28.314M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.03B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 202628,314,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.02 → $0.78 · observed estimates
$0.95B → $0.89B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.02 | $945,455,536 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.02 | $945,455,536 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.02 | $945,455,536 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.02 | $945,455,540 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.02 | $945,455,540 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.02 | $945,455,540 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.02 | $945,455,540 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.02 | $945,455,540 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.02 | $945,455,536 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.02 | $945,455,540 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.02 | $945,455,540 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.02 | $945,455,540 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.02 | $945,455,540 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.02 | $945,455,540 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.03 | $948,992,700 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.02 | $949,265,130 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.03 | $948,992,700 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.03 | $948,992,700 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.03 | $948,992,700 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.03 | $948,992,700 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.03 | $948,992,700 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.03 | $948,992,700 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.03 | $948,992,700 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.03 | $948,992,700 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.03 | $948,992,700 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.95 | $932,556,187 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.95 | $932,493,687 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.95 | $932,434,840 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.93 | $928,497,959 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.93 | $928,497,959 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.93 | $928,497,959 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.93 | $928,497,959 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.93 | $928,497,959 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.93 | $928,497,959 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.93 | $928,497,959 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.93 | $928,497,959 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.93 | $928,497,959 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.93 | $928,497,959 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.93 | $928,497,959 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.93 | $928,497,959 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.93 | $928,497,959 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.93 | $928,497,959 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.93 | $928,497,959 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.93 | $928,497,959 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.93 | $928,497,959 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.89 | $912,907,709 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.89 | $912,907,709 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.89 | $912,907,709 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.85 | $902,329,544 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.78 | $886,311,223 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.