Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM)
NASDAQIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.07-3.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve free cash flow near $160 million in 2026: FCF $110M vs $160M target (-31.3%).
Verra Mobility aims for $1.03B revenue in 2026. Profit goals are $415M EBITDA and $160M free cash flow. The company is cutting costs and changing leaders to improve. These moves could help it recover and grow.
The company lost a big contract with Avis. Leadership changes may hurt strategy and execution. Revenue and cash flow fell recently. These problems could keep hurting results.
The market expects about 6% revenue growth. Our fair value is much higher than the Street median. We see more upside if the turnaround works.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $405M in FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $150M in FY26
Breaks if: Ongoing leadership turmoil or failed turnaround execution
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on long-term growth through transformation initiatives. The current thesis state is weakened due to recent financial performance dropping relative to peers.
The valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with a notable expectations gap. The market seems to have priced in some fragility, but no major fragility gates have been triggered.
Fundamentals may continue to show robust earnings quality, but management's mixed results in renewing key contracts could pose risks. The near-term risk of missing earnings is low, but the company operates in a volatile sector.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like BR, LDOS, and CACI. Their ability to beat earnings and guide higher could support VRRM, while any misses could negatively impact the company.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read has weakened. It is challenged by vrrm: the reason to own it has weakened. It is supported by the latest earnings beat.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.02B in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, VRRM's performance will depend on sector dynamics and management's execution of their growth initiatives. Not investment advice.