Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM)
NASDAQIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.07-3.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VRRM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -63.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 61.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VRRM — CEO transition
Dated 2026-06-01
President and Chief Executive Officer — David Roberts: Mr. Roberts was terminated by the Company 'without cause'.
Why it matters: If industrial sector growth speeds up, it could help Verra Mobility's performance. This would signal a stronger market.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is close to 10% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would show that management's changes are working well.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 10% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: The success of the transformation is important for long-term growth and saving costs. Watching this shows if the changes work.
Supportive ifThe company sees clear gains in efficiency. There are cost savings from the changes.
Worry ifNo big improvements happen. New problems arise, showing the changes are not working.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing financially. They will show if it can meet its goals.
Watch forQ2 total revenue meets or exceeds the guidance of $1,020 million to $1,030 million.
Also watch forQ2 total revenue falls below the guidance range of $1,020 million to $1,030 million.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is key for funding operations and growth initiatives. A decline could signal issues.
Worry ifFree cash flow for Q3 is reported below $30 million.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow for Q3 exceeds $35 million.
Why it matters: A decline in cash flow could indicate operational issues. This is key for financial health.
Worry ifCash flow from operations decreases further from $56.4 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations is better or steady above $56.4 million.
Why it matters: Key contracts can greatly affect revenue stability. Losing a major customer would hurt.
Worry ifThere is news of a new contract ending or big changes from a major customer.
Less concerning ifKey contracts are renewed with good terms. This shows strong customer relationships.
Why it matters: A new CEO can change the direction of the company, affecting growth and operations.
Watch forNew CEO outlines a clear growth strategy that aligns with revenue goals.
Also watch forThe new CEO does not share a clear plan. This causes uncertainty about the company's direction.
Why it matters: Free Cash Flow is crucial for funding operations. Progress here shows financial health.
Supportive ifManagement raises Free Cash Flow guidance to over $150M. This means stronger cash generation.
Worry ifManagement lowers Free Cash Flow guidance to under $140M. This shows possible cash flow problems.
Why it matters: The loss of this contract could significantly reduce revenue and profit for 2026. Monitoring this will show how well the company adapts.
Worry ifVerra Mobility's revenue drops by $135 million to $145 million from the Avis contract.
Less concerning ifThe company reduces the impact and keeps revenue levels near previous guidance.
Why it matters: A big drop in cash from operations could mean problems or higher costs.
Worry ifNet cash from operations declines below $50 million for Q3.
Less concerning ifNet cash from operations remains above $60 million for Q3.
Why it matters: The new CEO's vision will guide Verra Mobility's plans and growth.
Watch forA new CEO is appointed who has a strong background in technology and customer relations.
Also watch forThe search for a new CEO is still going on. No clear candidate is named.
Why it matters: This will show if the company can meet its revenue guidance of $1.02B to $1.03B despite recent challenges.
Watch forQ2 revenue is over $250M. This shows growth momentum is coming back.
Also watch forQ2 revenue falls below $250M, showing ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: A new CEO can change company direction and impact growth strategies. Investors will look for stability.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a permanent CEO who has a strong track record in the mobility sector.
Worry ifNo permanent CEO appointed by the next earnings call on August 5, 2026.
Why it matters: Finalizing this contract will show how well Verra Mobility adapts to changing terms. It is key for revenue stability.
Worry ifThe final contract terms are out. They show no big revenue loss from the last deal.
Less concerning ifThe finalized contract shows terms that are much worse than the last agreement.
Why it matters: Growth in this segment is key for steady revenue. It shows demand for services.
Supportive ifGovernment Solutions segment revenue grows more than 15% year over year in the next quarter.
Worry ifGovernment Solutions segment revenue growth falls below 10% year over year in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$199 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $399 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,464 loss on $10,000 · 84.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.